In this page: Economic Indicators | Foreign Trade in Figures | Sources of General Economic Information | Political Outline | COVID-19 Country Response
For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.
Pakistan has achieved steady growth since 2013 in the aftermath of a credit facility agreement with the IMF. Economic growth slowed in recent years due to measures taken by the authorities to address macroeconomic imbalances and turned negative in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the IMF's estimates, growth resumed in 2021, reaching 3.9%, and should follow an upward trend over the forecast horizon, at 4% this year and 4.5% in 2023. Private consumption (around four-fifths of GDP) has benefited from the fiscal support plan for households and from foreign remittances. Furthermore, the industrial sector performed above expectation in the period Apr-June.
Concerning public finances, the planned rebalancing of the public deficit that followed the conclusion of the agreement with the IMF worth USD 6 billion over 39 months has been halted by the crisis due to falling revenues and rising public expenditure. The federal budget deficit increased by 29% y-o-y to PKR 1.8 trillion (3.3% of GDP) in the first half of FY2022 (July-December 2021), despite a double-digit increase in revenues and a slowdown in public spending. Current expenditure accounted for 92% of total expenditure, of which 40% was spent on interests on loans. Public debt declined to 83.4% of GDP in 2021, and is expected to follow a downward trend over the forecast horizon (80.9% in 2022 and 75.8% next year – IMF). Massive rupee depreciation, persistent increase in the rates of agriculture commodities, and high prices of petroleum products were the main causes of high inflation, at 8.9% in 2021. The government has set the average inflation target for the FY2021-22 within the range of 7-9%, with the IMF forecasting a rate of 8.5% in 2022 followed by 7.6% in 2023.
Pakistan's unemployment rate increased slightly to 5% in 2021, from 4.1% before the pandemic, due to the negative economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF estimates that the rate will decrease to 4.8% this year and 4.7% in 2023. The number of people no longer actively seeking work is increasing. The level of underemployment remains very high and much of the economy is informal. While the poverty rate has fallen by 40% over the last two decades, it is still high: using the lower-middle-income poverty rate of USD 3.2 per day, in fact, the World Bank calculated that Pakistan's poverty ratio stood at 39.3% in 2020-21.
Main Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP (billions USD) | 300.41 | 348.23 | 376.49 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | -0.9 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,377 | 1,564 | 1,658 | 0 | 0 |
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 79.6 | 74.9 | 77.8 | 71.1 | 66.0 |
Inflation Rate (%) | 10.7 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 19.9 | 10.0 |
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
Current Account (billions USD) | -4.45 | -2.82 | -17.32 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Current Account (in % of GDP) | -1.5 | -0.8 | -4.6 | -2.5 | -2.5 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , Latest available data
Note: (e) Estimated Data
The agricultural sector is the main pillar of the Pakistani workforce. It contributes to 22.7% of the GDP and employs 36.9% of the active population. Wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, fruits, vegetables and tobacco are among the major crops. Cattle livestock farming remains important as the country is among the top 10 beef and veal producers in the world. However, its contribution to exports remains limited after years of export ban. Pakistan is the 4th largest cotton producer in the world and has abundant natural resources, mainly copper, oil and gas. The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics estimates 2020-21 rice production at 8419.7 thousand tonnes (+13.5% y-o-y), whereas wheat production stood at 27464.1 thousand tonnes (+8.7% y-o-y).
The industrial sector contributes to 18.3% of the GDP and employs 25.8% of the population. The major industries are textile production (the largest source of foreign exchange revenue), oil refining, metal processing, and the production of cement and fertilisers. Maritime transport is also a significant activity; however, the market is dominated by foreign shipping companies and the state-owned Pakistan National Shipping Corporation (PNSC). The manufacturing sector accounts for 11.5% of GDP (World Bank). Total industrial manufacturing production increased by 4.2% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2021 (data Pakistan Bureau of Statistics).
The tertiary sector contributes to 52.8% of the GDP and employs more than one-third of the workforce (38.1%). The IT sector is growing rapidly, contributing around 1% of GDP and accounting for 3.5% of exports. Remittances from Pakistanis working abroad represent a considerable financial income for the country. During the period July-March of FY2021, the services sector grew 4.4% (Ministry of Finance).
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
---|---|---|---|
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 36.9 | 25.0 | 38.1 |
Value Added (in % of GDP) | 22.7 | 18.8 | 52.1 |
Value Added (Annual % Change) | 3.5 | 7.8 | 6.0 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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Monetary Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pakistani Rupee (PKR) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR | 2.95 | 3.06 | 3.59 | 3.85 | 4.02 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
The share of foreign trade in Pakistan's GDP continues to be low, at 29% (World Bank, latest data available). Despite economic and political difficulties, Pakistan has taken steps to liberalise its trade and investment framework as part of commitments made with the WTO, IMF and the World Bank. Textile products accounted by far for the largest share of exports (around 60%, mostly comprising linen, clothing and cotton), followed by rice (9.4%). In regards to imports, the largest item was petroleum products, followed by palm oil, telephones and ferrous waste (Comtrade).
The United States is the top destination for Pakistani exports (18.6%, mainly textile), followed by China (8.4%), the United Kingdom (7.8%), and Germany (6.3%). China is by far the largest supplier of goods and services in Pakistan (27.3%), followed by the United Arab Emirates (9.8%), the United States (5.6%), Indonesia (5.3%), and Saudi Arabia (4.1%). The free trade agreement (FTA) with China has been detrimental to Pakistani manufacturing exports, which have declined continuously in recent years, and local businesses worry the completion of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor would further increase the share of Chinese products in the domestic market. As talks with the GCC stalled, Pakistan is now pursuing individual trade agreements with Saudi, the UAE and Oman. Moreover, Pakistan and Qatar have agreed in principle on a preferential trade agreement (PTA) and a free trade agreement (FTA) to enhance bilateral trade.
Pakistan's trade structure has been structurally in deficit, with exports remaining sluggish on the back of low global demand for Pakistani crops. Imports of goods reached USD 45.8 billion in 2020, while exports were only USD 21.9 billion. Concerning the trade of services, imports were USD 7.3 billion, whereas exports amounted to USD 4.3 billion. Overall imports decreased at a faster pace than exports, resulting in a reduced trade deficit of 7.4% of GDO (from 10.1% one year earlier – World Bank). The latest figures from the Bureau of Statistics show that in the first six months of FY2022 (Jul-Dec 2021), exports of goods reached USD 15.1 billion (+24.9% y-o-y), against USD 40.6 billion of imports (+66.2% y-o-y, driven by rising global fuel and food prices and purchases of COVID-19 vaccines).
Foreign Trade Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imports of Goods (million USD) | 57,746 | 60,078 | 50,332 | 45,804 | 72,515 |
Exports of Goods (million USD) | 21,725 | 23,425 | 23,329 | 21,961 | 28,319 |
Imports of Services (million USD) | 9,858 | 11,130 | 9,724 | 7,306 | 9,806 |
Exports of Services (million USD) | 3,914 | 4,695 | 4,656 | 4,378 | 6,498 |
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | 19.0 | 15.7 | 7.6 | -5.1 | 14.5 |
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | 2.5 | 10.0 | 13.2 | 1.5 | 6.5 |
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 17.3 | 19.0 | 19.5 | 17.4 | 18.0 |
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 8.2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 9.1 |
Trade Balance (million USD) | -29,594 | -31,911 | -22,881 | -22,172 | -37,518 |
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) | -35,007 | -37,648 | -27,306 | -24,765 | -40,826 |
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) | 25.5 | 27.6 | 28.9 | 26.7 | 27.1 |
Source: WTO – World Trade Organisation ; World Bank , Latest Available Data
Main Customers (% of Exports) |
2021 |
---|---|
United States | 21.1% |
China | 10.5% |
United Kingdom | 7.3% |
Germany | 5.4% |
Netherlands | 4.9% |
See More Countries | 50.8% |
Main Suppliers (% of Imports) |
2021 |
---|---|
China | 28.3% |
United Arab Emirates | 10.1% |
Indonesia | 5.8% |
United States | 5.3% |
Saudi Arabia | 5.2% |
See More Countries | 45.4% |
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
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5.8 bn USD of services exported in 2019 | |
---|---|
25.43% | |
22.38% | |
21.03% | |
14.80% | |
8.56% | |
Personal travelPersonal travel | 8.52% |
Business travelBusiness travel | 0.03% |
4.99% | |
1.89% | |
0.73% | |
0.19% |
9.8 bn USD of services imported in 2019 | |
---|---|
36.25% | |
25.95% | |
16.91% | |
Personal travelPersonal travel | 16.60% |
Business travelBusiness travel | 0.31% |
5.12% | |
4.35% | |
4.04% | |
2.90% | |
2.51% | |
1.96% | |
0.01% |
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, Latest Available Data
- Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians (PPPP): a mainstream political party derived out of Pakistan People's Party
- Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI): centre-left
- Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM): self-proclaimed liberal
- Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA): far-right
- Jamiat Ulama-e-Islam (JUI-F): far right
- Jamaat-e Islami Pakistan(JI): far right
- Awami National Party (ANP): Democratic socialism
- Pak Sarzameen Party (PSP)
- Awami Workers Party (AWP): Left Wing
- Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP): far right
The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
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Latest Update: March 2023