In this page: Economic Indicators | Foreign Trade in Figures | Sources of General Economic Information | Political Outline | COVID-19 Country Response
For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.
After having suffered from the international crisis, Iceland's economy recovered, also thanks to a USD 2 billion loan granted from the IMF to stabilise the exchange rate of the Icelandic krona and to restore confidence, driven by unprecedented growth in tourism, strong consumption and falling unemployment. In 2021, an early opening of the economy contributed to a rebound in GDP (estimated at +3.7% by the IMF) after the recession experienced following the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic one year earlier). Growing wages contributed to an increase in private consumption, whereas tourism recovered only partially. The economy is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2022 and 3.7% in 2023, driven by rebounding foreign tourism and robust goods exports. Business investment is expected to ease as pent-up projects are being terminated, while household consumption should remain solid (IMF).
Iceland's economic outlook is very volatile, as the country is heavily dependent on the tourism sector (which accounts for 40% of export income and around 10% of GDP), making it vulnerable to external shocks. This is why, following the Covid-19 pandemic, the Icelandic economy came to a standstill. The effects of the crisis are clearly visible. Public debt has risen to 75.8% of GDP in 2021 (from a pre-pandemic level of 66.1%) but is expected to decrease marginally in 2022 (75.4%) and 2023 (73.9%). The public deficit stood at an estimated 3.5% of GDP in 2021 and is expected to peak at -6.2% this year, before easing in 2023 (-3.9% - IMF). Between May and November 2021 the Central Bank tightened its monetary policy, raising the interest rate in four steps, from 0.75% to 2%. Despite such measures, inflation spiked to 4.3% in 2021. While the inflationary pressure should diminish somewhat in 2022, the level of inflation will remain elevated and noticeable (at around 3.5%), before returning to the Central Bank’s inflation target of 2.5% in 2023. Iceland is a member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and is also part of the European Economic Area (EEA). To benefit from European aid and the 'umbrella' constituted by the euro, Iceland had applied to join the European Union. Nevertheless, it definitively withdrew its candidacy in March 2015.
Iceland's unemployment rate increased exponentially to 7% in 2021 despite hiring subsidies, from 3.9% in 2019, due to the negative economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The IMF expects the rate to decrease to 5% this year and 4% in 2023, although the rate will remain very dependent on the development of tourism (which represents almost one-fourth of total employment). Overall, Iceland has a high standard of living, one of the highest GDP per capita in Europe (estimated at USD 58,151 in 2021 by the IMF), and one of the lowest poverty rates in the world (4.9% as of 2021 – data Iceland Monitor). Nevertheless, Iceland is among the countries with most people living abroad and will have to import thousands of foreign workers to meet the needs of businesses.
Main Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP (billions USD) | 21.70 | 25.60 | 27.70 | 29.62 | 32.17 |
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | -6.8 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 |
GDP per Capita (USD) | 59,579 | 69,422 | 73,981 | 77,961 | 83,432 |
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -4.2 | -4.1 | -6.8 | -4.3 | -3.0 |
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 77.2 | 74.6 | 68.2 | 63.1 | 60.0 |
Inflation Rate (%) | 2.8 | 4.5 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 |
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 6.4 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
Current Account (billions USD) | 0.40 | -0.41 | -0.55 | -0.08 | 0.16 |
Current Account (in % of GDP) | 1.9 | -1.6 | -2.0 | -0.3 | 0.5 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , Latest available data
Note: (e) Estimated Data
Iceland has a labour force of more than 213,000 people out of a population of 366,000. The Icelandic labour market is characterised by a high participation rate and a high proportion of trade union membership, at around 92.2% (OECD). Since the financial crisis in 2008, one of the government’s priorities has been to diversify the economy, which in the last decade was mainly oriented towards the manufacturing and service industries. The agricultural sector contributes around 4.3% of Iceland's GDP and employs 4% of the workforce. Large areas of sheep pasture are among the most important agricultural resources in the country. The main agricultural products are potatoes, carrots, green vegetables, tomatoes, cucumbers, mutton, chicken, pork, beef and dairy products. The Icelandic economy relies partly on its renewable natural resources and related industries: deep sea fishing, hydraulic and geothermal power and pastures. Fishing is one of the pillars of Iceland’s economy and covers around 40% of exports.
The industrial sector represents almost 19.7% of GDP and employs 17.5% of the workforce. The hydroelectric potential stimulates the production of aluminium, which is the primary resource for export and concentrates around 70% of the electricity produced on the island. Geothermal provides the remaining 30% so that renewable energies cover all of the country’s energy needs. The food processing sector is also important. The manufacturing sector alone accounts for 8.7% of GDP (World Bank).
Services account for 66.2% of GDP and employ 68.5% of the workforce. For the past several years, Iceland's economy has grown thanks to the services sector, particularly within the fields of tourism, software production and biotechnology. In fact, Iceland has become the rear-base of several companies specialising in computers and software. There are also many call centres in the country. Total assets of the banking sector amount to ISK 4,212 billion, the equivalent to around 140% of GDP in 2020 (latest data available). Due to the Covid-19 pandemic and restrictions on international travel, the tourism sector has suffered a major shock: in 2021, the number of foreign tourists stood at 700,000, compared to a pre-crisis level of around 2 million.
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
---|---|---|---|
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 4.0 | 17.5 | 78.5 |
Value Added (in % of GDP) | 4.5 | 20.4 | 64.6 |
Value Added (Annual % Change) | 2.0 | 5.6 | 4.2 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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Monetary Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iceland Crown (ISK) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR | 3.40 | 3.10 | 3.19 | 3.45 | 3.44 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
Iceland has always been open to international trade, which represents 69.2% of GDP (World Bank). Most of the restrictions on foreign exchange transactions and the cross-border movement of domestic and foreign currency for both businesses and households were lifted in order to stimulate foreign trade. The main barriers to trade and market entries are the increasing adoption of EU product standards and regulations, high tariffs on most agricultural products from outside the EU, restrictions on import of some products, such as raw meat; due to phytosanitary regulations and difficulty in obtaining financing for joint ventures. Traditional sectors such as fishing stimulate the dynamism of the country's exports. More than 40% of the national exports are fishing products. Iceland also exports aluminium and ferrosilicon (around one-third of total exports), as well as dairy products. Main imports are artificial corundum, motor cars, and petroleum oils other than crude.
Iceland's main customers are the Netherlands (20.3% of total exports), Spain (17.3%), the United Kingdom (11.1%), and France (8.1%). Its main suppliers are Norway (9%), Germany (8.8%), China (8.4%), the Netherlands (7.8%), and Denmark (7.2%). The European Union absorbs more than two-thirds of Icelandic exports and it supplies around half of the total imports (the country is a member of the European Economic Area - EEA).
After becoming exceptionally positive during the global economic crisis, the trade balance of goods has been negative since 2014: in 2020, the country exported USD 4.5 billion worth of merchandise (-12.2% y-o-y), importing USD 5.7 billion (-13.2%). However, Iceland is a net service exporter (USD 2.7 billion of export vs. USD 2.21 billion of imports in 2020 – data by WTO). Following a contraction of almost 50% in services exports, the overall external balance for goods and services turned negative in 2020 (estimated at -0.7% of GDP by the World Bank).
As per the latest figures by Statistics Iceland, for the year 2021, the total value of exported goods was ISK 759.1 billion (up by 22.4% y-o-y), against a total value of imports of ISK 996.4 billion (+29.2%).
Foreign Trade Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imports of Goods (million USD) | 6,965 | 7,679 | 6,567 | 5,698 | 7,817 |
Exports of Goods (million USD) | 4,878 | 5,556 | 5,223 | 4,586 | 5,987 |
Imports of Services (million USD) | 3,724 | 4,262 | 3,611 | 2,227 | 2,952 |
Exports of Services (million USD) | 6,255 | 6,537 | 5,635 | 2,765 | 3,708 |
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | 11.8 | 0.9 | -8.5 | -21.5 | 20.3 |
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | 5.1 | 1.7 | -4.7 | -29.9 | 12.7 |
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 41.2 | 43.3 | 39.8 | 35.0 | 40.0 |
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 45.7 | 46.6 | 44.4 | 34.5 | 38.2 |
Trade Balance (million USD) | -1,525 | -1,507 | -1,001 | -634 | -1,262 |
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) | 1,119 | 875 | 1,114 | -115 | -459 |
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) | 87.0 | 90.0 | 84.2 | 69.5 | 78.2 |
Source: WTO – World Trade Organisation ; World Bank , Latest Available Data
Main Customers (% of Exports) |
2021 |
---|---|
Netherlands | 27.2% |
Spain | 11.8% |
United Kingdom | 9.6% |
France | 8.0% |
United States | 7.8% |
See More Countries | 35.6% |
Main Suppliers (% of Imports) |
2021 |
---|---|
Norway | 9.7% |
China | 8.9% |
Germany | 8.5% |
United States | 8.2% |
Denmark | 7.6% |
See More Countries | 57.0% |
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
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Source: United Nations Statistics Division, Latest Available Data
The Prime Minister is the head of the government and holds the executive powers which include implementation of the law in the country and running the day-to-day affairs. The Prime Minister also appoints the Cabinet.
The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
To find out about the latest public health situation in Iceland and the current sanitary measures in vigour, please consult the official portal Covid.is, including the up-to-date information on the containment measures put in place and public health recommendations. Further info can be found on the website of the Directorate of Health and on the official portal of the Government of Iceland.
The COVID-19 situation, including the spread of new variants, evolves rapidly and differs from country to country. All travelers need to pay close attention to the conditions at their destination before traveling. Regularly updated information for all countries with regards to Covid-19 related travel restrictions in place including entry regulations, flight bans, test requirements and quarantine is available on TravelDoc Infopage.
It is also highly recommended to consult COVID-19 Travel Regulations Map provided and updated on the daily basis by IATA.
The US government website of Centers of Disease Control and Prevention provides COVID-19 Travel Recommendations by Destination.
The UK Foreign travel advice also provides travelling abroad advice for all countries, including the latest information on coronavirus, safety and security, entry requirements and travel warnings.
For the information on all the measures applicable to movement of goods during the period of sanitary emergency due to the COVID-19 outbreak (including eventual restrictions on imports and exports, if applicable), please consult the portal of Iceland Revenue and Customs.
For a general overview of trade restrictions due to COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the section dedicated to Iceland on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage.
To know about the economic measures taken by the Icelandic government to address the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the national economy, please visit the dedicated page on the official portal of the Government of Iceland and that of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs. For a list of the decisions taken by the Central Bank of Iceland (CBI), click here. An overview of the measures is available on the website of KPMG.
For the general overview of the key economic policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak (fiscal, monetary and macroeconomic) taken by the Icelandic government to limit the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the section dedicated to Iceland in the IMF’s Policy Tracker platform.
For the information on the local business support scheme and taxation measures established by the Icelandic government to help businesses to deal with the economic impacts of the COVID-19 epidemic on their activity, please consult the portal of the Government of Iceland and the website of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs.
For a general overview of international SME support policy responses to the COVID-19 outbreak refer to the World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19.
You can also consult the World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19.
At the moment the official government sources do not provide any information on the specific programs for Icelandic exporting companies put in place by the national government following the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak. For updated information please consult the website of the national Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs.
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Latest Update: March 2023