Economic Outline

flag Guinea Guinea: Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Guinea has been recording sustained growth in recent years, driven by mining (mainly bauxite), greater investments in infrastructures as well as good agricultural performances. Despite the measures introduced to limit the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic and the global crisis that followed, Guinea’s economy grew by 7.1% in 2020, driven by a dynamic mining sector (IMF). Economic growth decelerated to 5.2% in 2021, and is expected to strengthen to 6.3% in 2022 and to remain high at 5.9% in 2023 (IMF). It will be driven by high external demand for bauxite and gold, improving demand for diamonds, a recovery in non-mining sectors, the easing of Covid-related disruptions and the expected settlement of government payment arrears (IMF). Global and domestic uncertainties could nonetheless cloud the outlook.

In 2021, the Guinean economy continued to show resilience, supported by a dynamic mining sector and the recovery of non-mining sectors. Increased mining revenues and a reduction in electricity subsidies allowed the budget deficit to narrow in 2021, despite higher capital expenditures related to investments (Coface). From -2.9% GDP in 2020, budget deficit decreased to -2.2% GDP in 2021 (Coface). It is expected to reach -2.5% GDP in 2022 (Coface). The deficit is financed through borrowing from international donors (IMF, AfDB, World Bank) and from China, the main creditor, which holds half of the external public debt (Coface). Public debt increased from an estimated 43.8% GDP in 2020 to 47.5% GDP in 2021, and it is expected to slowly reduce to 45.8% GDP in 2022 and 43.5% GDP in 2023 (IMF). Due to Covid-related supply constraints, rising global prices and accommodative macro policies, inflation picked up to 11.6% in 2021 (from 10.6% in 2020) (IMF). It is expected to reduce to 9.9% in 2022 and 8% in 2023, helped by the government repayment of central bank advances and the recent appreciation of the Guinean franc (IMF). The main priorities identified by the IMF are to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization, to repay arrears to support a more vibrant private sector and help improve credit intermediation, and to increase investments in infrastructure and social sectors.

Multiple social inequalities are recorded in Guinea, which is classified as a low-income country by the World Bank (with a GDP per capita of only USD 2,700). It is estimated that the informal economy accounts for around half of GDP and 70% of employment. According to figures from the World Bank, the unemployment rate stood at 6.1% in 2020. Guinea is ranked 178th worldwide on the 2020 UNDP’s Human Development Index.

 
Main Indicators 201920202021 (e)2022 (e)2023 (e)
GDP (billions USD) 13.51e15.39e16.7218.2219.55
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 5.6e7.1e5.26.35.9
GDP per Capita (USD) 992e1,102e1,1681,2421,300
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 38.443.8e47.545.843.5
Inflation Rate (%) 9.510.612.612.712.3
Current Account (billions USD) -1.55-2.10-1.42-2.03-2.41
Current Account (in % of GDP) -11.5e-13.7e-8.5-11.2-12.3

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - October 2021.

Note: (e) Estimated Data


 
Monetary Indicators 20142015201820192020
Guinea Franc (GNF) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR 229.06213.53265.550.25243.10

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

Main Sectors of Industry

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 60.7 5.8 33.6
Value Added (in % of GDP) 23.7 32.7 36.2
Value Added (Annual % Change) 6.2 21.5 -2.1

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

The Active Population in Figures

201820192020
Labour Force 4,290,4064,433,6724,456,144

Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database

 
201720182019
Total activity rate 63.29%63.11%62.96%
Men activity rate 61.49%61.05%60.66%
Women activity rate 64.87%64.93%65.01%

Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.

Score:
56,5/100
World Rank:
123
Regional Rank:
20

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 
 

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.

 

Indicator of Political Freedom

Definition:

The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.

Ranking:
Partly Free
Political Freedom:
5/7

Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House

 

Indicator of Freedom of the Press

Definition:

The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).

World Rank:
109/180

Source: World Press Freedom Index, Reporters Without Borders

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Sources of General Economic Information

Main Online Newspapers and Portals
Allafrica, Guinea News
Afrol, News-Guinea
Guinea Newspapers and News Media Guide
BBC Country Profile, Guinea
Useful Resources
Ministry of Economy and Finance
Ministry of Mines
Ministry of Agriculture
Central Bank of Guinea
 
 

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Latest Update: May 2022