Djibouti: Economic Outline
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After rebounding from the global health crisis thanks to the recovery of regional and international trade, Djibouti's economy was hit by the consequences of the war in Ukraine, the conflict in Ethiopia and trade disruptions in China. Economic growth slowed down from 4.8% GDP in 2021 to 2.5% GDP in 2022, according to IMF’s latest estimates. In 2023, the country's activity should still be driven by rising demand for logistics and transhipment services and the continuation of transport and port infrastructure projects (Coface). According to IMF forecasts, GDP growth is expected to strengthen to 5% in 2023 and 6% in 2024, subject to the stabilisation of the situation in Ethiopia.
In 2022, Djibouti’s economy, which was just recovering from the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, was hit by the fall in port traffic driven by the conflict in Ethiopia. In addition, higher commodity prices and regional drought eroded households’ purchasing power and reduced government revenue (IMF). Due to large investments in infrastructure projects, public debt increased from 46% GDP in 2021 to 50.1% GDP in 2022, and it is expected to continue rising to 53.5% GDP in 2023 and 54.3% GDP in 2024 (IMF). Debt service tripled in 2022 to almost 5% GDP following the expiration of the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, increasing budget pressures (IMF). Almost entirely external, public debt is mainly owed to China (70% of total public debt in 2021), but the country is seeking to diversify its sources of financing in favor of less costly multilateral sources (Coface). Fiscal deficit narrowed from -2.9% GDP in 2021 to -1.1% GDP in 2022, and it is expected to remain stable in 2023 (-1.2%) and 2024 (-1%) (IMF). However, improvement in customs and transhipment revenues will depend on the Ethiopian situation, and in the context of the war in Ukraine, public spending on mitigating inflationary pressures will remain high (Coface). Inflation increased from 1.2% in 2021 to 6.6% in 2022, and it is expected to decline to 1.9% in 2023 before rising again to 3% in 2024 (IMF). Inflation will be limited by the peg of the Djibouti currency to the U.S. dollar. The 2023 budget, balanced and 2.9% higher than the previous one, focuses on implementing fiscal and structural reforms, strengthening social sectors and economic recovery, and supporting purchasing power. The government will also pursue the Vision Djibouti 2035 strategy, which aims to transform the country into a middle-income economy and a logistics and commercial hub for East Africa. The key challenge pointed out by the IMF is for Djibouti to adjust its growth model to reduce dependence on debt-financed investments while supporting an inclusive recovery. Domestic revenue mobilization, improved oversight of public enterprises and rationalization of subsidies are essential. Other challenges include poor governance, the increasing dependency on Ethiopia and China, and the widening gap separating the modern portion of the economy and the archaic informal portion on which the population is largely dependent (Coface). In addition, the deterioration of economic and security climate among Djibouti's major economic partners (Yemen, Somalia and Ethiopia) poses risks to the country's economy, which accommodates an increasing number of refugees fleeing the conflict in Yemen.
Djibouti remains a poor country with a high unemployment rate of 28% of the total labour force in 2021 (World Bank, modeled ILO estimate), vast inequalities and a low level of education. The population as a whole draws little benefit from the income derived from hosting foreign garrisons and port activities, considering that around 16% of the population is living below the poverty line of 1,90 USD per day and more than a fifth of the population lives in extreme poverty (World Bank). Djibouti is ranked 171/191 in the UN Human Development Index.
| Main Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 (E) | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (billions USD) | 3.18 | 3.37 | 3.65 | 3.92 | 4.28 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 1.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 3,220 | 3,365 | 3,588 | 3,803 | 4,106 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 42.3 | 41.0 | 40.6 | 39.0 | 36.7 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 1.8 | 1.2 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | 0.36 | -0.02 | -0.18 | -0.15 | -0.10 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | 11.3 | -0.7 | -5.0 | -3.8 | -2.3 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - October 2021.
Note: (e) Estimated Data
| Monetary Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Djibouti Franc (DJF) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR | 5.00 | 5.15 | 5.24 | 5.01 | 4.52 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
Agriculture carries no weight in the economy.
Industry accounts for a fifth of the Djiboutian gross domestic product.
The tertiary activity contributes to more than 80% of Djibouti's wealth. The manufacturing and services sectors completely depend on the port activities.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 24.5 | 13.4 | 62.0 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 1.7 | 14.9 | 77.3 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 11.5 | -4.4 | 3.1 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Force | 406,886 | 414,572 | 412,419 |
Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total activity rate | 63.82% | 63.75% | 63.70% |
| Men activity rate | 72.63% | 72.33% | 72.08% |
| Women activity rate | 53.89% | 54.06% | 54.24% |
Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database
The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).
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Latest Update: May 2023
