In this page: Economic Indicators | Foreign Trade in Figures | Sources of General Economic Information | Political Outline | COVID-19 Country Response
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Afghanistan's economic recovery came to halt with the Covid-19 outbreak in 2020, weighing on already fragile consumer and investor sentiment and slowing trade flows on the country's borders. Furthermore, since the Taliban regained power in August 2021, the situation in the country is widely reported to have worsened. A complete collapse of banking infrastructure alongside an increase in poverty and hunger has meant that the country is in dire need of humanitarian aid. Although the main global financial institutions do not provide official data, Afghanistan’s GDP is estimated to have contracted by around one-fifth in 2021, with a negative outlook over the forecast horizon. Household consumption (80% of GDP) could contract by 40% as many Afghans are working for no pay, especially in the public sector.
The sudden halt in the flow of aid in the form of grants, including dollar banknotes (previously 40% of GDP), which followed the takeover of the Taliban, has led to the Afghani depreciating against the dollar by almost one-third between the end of 2020 and the end of 2021. Coface expects the currency value to fall further in 2022. The authorities intend to curb the rising budget deficit in 2022 by adopting a 10% rate of VAT. The majority of the new government’s revenues is coming from poppy cultivation and opiate trafficking (estimated at USD 6.6 billion in 2021). Humanitarian aid resumed by the end of 2021 (USD 280 million by the World Bank through the special fund for the reconstruction of the country, plus USD 10 million in debt service relief from the IMF). Meanwhile, following the U.S. decision to suspend and freeze foreign exchange reserves (estimated at over USD 9 billion) the country was forced to reduce its imports. Overall, the public debt, which has been mainly external and very low, is expected to increase and could lead to a sovereign debt default.
Afghanistan is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a GDP per capita (PPP) of around USD 2,474. The population faces unemployment, poor sanitary conditions, weak basic infrastructures (health, water, electricity) and insecurity. According to the World Bank database, the 2021 unemployment rate was equal to 11.7% of the total labour force; however, it should be noted that the undeclared employment rate is higher. Although an Afghan middle-class had begun to emerge - primarily composed of expatriates who grew up in Iran or Pakistan - they tend to be discouraged by the economic and political situation in the country. As such, immigration to Western countries increased significantly in recent years and constitutes a major risk for the country's long-term development. Moreover, the restriction of women's employment imposed by the Taliban may inflict an additional economic loss estimated between 3 and 5% of GDP (Coface).
Agriculture was traditionally a driving force of the Afghan economy. Prior to Taliban rule and decades of conflict, Afghanistan was not only able to produce enough food for its own population but also exported many agricultural products, such as almonds, pomegranates, pistachios, raisins, and apricots. Nevertheless, agriculture is now on the way to recovery, mainly through international aid, and continues to be the main source of income for many households. Agriculture accounts for 27% of GDP and employs 42.5% of the labour force (World Bank, latest data available). The 2021 aggregate cereal production was estimated at 4.8 million tonnes by FAO, more than 20% below the 2020 harvest and 12% below average.
Industry is still largely at its infant stage, and dependent on small-scale manufacturing (mainly textile) but also mining and energy production. Manufacturing is the only sector that employs predominantly women (65% of all manufacturing workers are female). Industry as a whole accounts for 12.5% of GDP and employs 18.5% of total workforce. The manufacturing sector’s share of GDP stands at 7.6%.
After years of expansion, the services sector employs 39% of the workforce and accounts for 56.1% of the GDP. Community, social and personal services take up a considerable share of the tertiary sector, followed by whole and retail trade. Financing, insurance, real estate and business services are nearly non-existent and employ 1% of the workforce. It is important to note that official statistics do not take into account illicit activities, such as poppy culture, opium and heroin trafficking as well as cross-border smuggling, which are thought to account for a significant share of the economy.
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
---|---|---|---|
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 42.5 | 18.5 | 39.0 |
Value Added (in % of GDP) | 33.5 | 15.6 | 46.5 |
Value Added (Annual % Change) | -2.8 | -14.2 | -32.7 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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Monetary Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Afghanistan Afghani (AFN) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR | 1.91 | 1.97 | 2.12 | 2.19 | 1.95 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
After the collapse of the Taliban Government in 2001, Afghanistan opened up to international trade. The state has very few commercial barriers for imported products, and customs duties have been kept flat given weak imports. The share of trade peaked at 49.2% of GDP in 2018 before falling to 45.6% in 2019 (World Bank, latest data available). Afghanistan traditionally exports items with low value, such as dried fruit, carpets, cotton, cereals and non-alcoholic beverages. Its main items of import include wheat, peat, textile and petroleum products. Although not officially recorded, opium remains the main export of the country (as of 2021, Afghanistan's harvest produced more than 90% of illicit heroin globally, and more than 95% of the European supply).
Afghanistan usually trades with its neighbours, with Pakistan being its major trade partner. Pakistan, along with India, receive around 75% of Afghan exports, followed by the United Arab Emirates, China and Turkey. Iran is the main supplier of goods in Afghanistan, followed by China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan. The poor state of its infrastructure, a legal and business framework that is still under development and continued insecurity act as de facto trade barriers. Nonetheless, at the end of 2015, Afghanistan's application to join the WTO was approved by its member states. Furthermore, the IMF and Afghanistan have been working to establish economic policies to improve the country's trade balance. The development of trade with Central Asia and Iran could increase exports along with the opening of a new railway linking China to Afghanistan via Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
According to the last available data from WTO, in 2020 exports edged down to USD 732 million from USD 864 million a year earlier; whereas imports increased to USD 7.1 billion (+5.8%). Concerning services, imports stood at USD 1 billion in 2020, while exports reached USD 597 million (-10.1% and +18.4%, respectively). As can be seen from the above figures, Afghanistan has a structural trade deficit, which is expected to worsen following the establishment of the Taliban regime.
Foreign Trade Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imports of Goods (million USD) | 7,580 | 7,407 | 6,777 | 7,171 | 5,574 |
Exports of Goods (million USD) | 780 | 875 | 864 | 732 | 1,037 |
Imports of Services (million USD) | 1,054 | 1,311 | 1,160 | 1,042 | 0 |
Exports of Services (million USD) | 253 | 621 | 504 | 597 | 0 |
Trade Balance (million USD) | -5,932 | -5,746 | -5,294 | -5,101 | n/a |
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) | -6,804 | -6,378 | -5,855 | -5,507 | n/a |
Source: WTO – World Trade Organisation ; World Bank , Latest Available Data
Main Customers (% of Exports) |
2019 |
---|---|
India | 47.1% |
Pakistan | 34.3% |
China | 3.6% |
Türkiye | 2.9% |
United Arab Emirates | 2.9% |
See More Countries | 9.3% |
Main Suppliers (% of Imports) |
2019 |
---|---|
Iran | 14.6% |
China | 13.9% |
Pakistan | 12.9% |
United States | 9.1% |
Turkmenistan | 8.1% |
See More Countries | 41.5% |
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
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0.7 bn USD of services exported in 2019 | |
---|---|
23.03% | |
22.62% | |
16.96% | |
16.34% | |
11.12% | |
Personal travelPersonal travel | 10.67% |
Business travelBusiness travel | 0.45% |
8.24% | |
1.07% | |
0.60% | |
0.02% | |
n/a% |
1.2 bn USD of services imported in 2019 | |
---|---|
77.29% | |
10.84% | |
Personal travelPersonal travel | 10.80% |
Business travelBusiness travel | 0.04% |
4.41% | |
3.40% | |
2.30% | |
1.17% | |
0.40% | |
0.11% | |
0.09% | |
n/a% |
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, Latest Available Data
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
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Latest Update: March 2023