Zambia: Economic and Political Overview
In this page: Economic Indicators | Foreign Trade in Figures | Sources of General Economic Information | Political Outline
Despite a historic drought and pessimistic forecasts, Zambia’s economy demonstrated resilience. Still recovering from the COVID-19 recession, the country endured its worst drought in over two decades during the 2023/2024 rainy season, worsened by the El Niño weather pattern. Real GDP growth, which averaged 5.6% from 2021 to 2023, was estimated at 4% in 2024 as mining production grew for the first time in three years, rising by 12%, driven by the resumption of operations at Konkola Copper Mine, improvements at Mopani, and higher output from several other mines. This, along with growth in construction and services, helped sustain the overall GDP expansion. According to the World Bank, real GDP growth is projected at 6.2% in 2025 and 6.6% on average in 2026-27, driven by strong agricultural harvests, improved reservoir levels, and higher electricity generation. Growth will be supported by momentum across agriculture, mining, agrifood processing, and services linked to mining, agriculture, and tourism.
Preliminary figures show an improved fiscal position in 2024, with a budget deficit of 2.7% of GDP, driven by revenue growth from mining and resilient performance despite limited spending on goods, services, and capital due to constrained domestic financing. The proposed 2025 budget is ZMW 217.1 billion, equivalent to 26.6% of GDP, up from the revised 2024 budget of ZMW 202.1 billion (30.8% of GDP). The 2024 revision marked a ZMW 24.2 billion increase over the original budget of ZMW 177.9 billion (27.8% of GDP), representing a monetary rise of 7.4%. Higher domestic interest payments and resumed Eurobond debt servicing increased interest costs, crowding out productive spending. Debt restructuring is nearing completion after four years. However, the prolonged process has increased sovereign risk, discouraged foreign direct investment, weakened the local currency, and contributed to inflation, especially during the drought. Debt restructuring agreements with official bilateral creditors in October 2023, international bondholders in June 2024, and recent in-principle agreements with two major Chinese private creditors have resulted in agreements on over 90% of the debt to be restructured. Completing this process and implementing policy reforms, including debt management and energy sector improvements, should support Zambia's long-term fiscal sustainability. Meanwhile, gross international reserves increased from 3.4 months of imports in 2023 to 4.1 in 2024, supported by mining receipts and external financing from multilateral organizations. According to the Bank of Zambia, inflation was projected to average around 15% in 2024 driven by higher food prices and exchange rate depreciation (over 30% in 2024), with a slightly lower but still elevated projection of 13.9% for 2025. In February 2025, the monetary policy committee hiked the rate to 14.5% from 14%, its highest level in more than eight years.
While Zambia achieved lower middle-income status in 2011 after a decade of strong growth, the decline in Gross National Income (GNI) per capita led to Zambia's reclassification as a low-income country by the World Bank starting from the 2023 financial year. Despite its enormous economic potential linked to mining resources, poverty is widespread (63.1% of the population in 2024) and is compounded by a high birth rate and a relatively high burden of HIV/AIDS (one in ten Zambians has the virus). In 2024, the unemployment rate in the country was at 6% (World Bank), with youth unemployment being particularly high, leading more young people in Zambia to venture into businesses to counter unemployment. The country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 4,260 in 2024 by the IMF.
| Main Indicators | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) | 2028 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (billions USD) | 26.33 | 28.91 | 34.24 | 40.16 | 43.67 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 4.0 | 6.2 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 5.2 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,246 | 1,332 | 1,536 | 1,756 | 1,861 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 114.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 15.0 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 7.0 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -0.44 | 0.13 | 0.88 | 1.40 | 1.47 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -1.7 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 3.5 | 3.4 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , Latest available data
Note: (e) Estimated Data
The agricultural sector is the backbone of the Zambian economy: although the sector represents only 2.2% of the country's GDP, it employs 55.4% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available). Zambia spans 75 million hectares, of which 58% is classified as medium to high potential for agriculture production; however, agriculture in Zambia remains largely underexploited, with only 15% of its potential arable land under cultivation. The sector's low contribution to GDP is attributable to poor rural infrastructure and an extreme vulnerability to drought. Zambia's agricultural sector focuses mainly on crop farming (maize, cotton, soybeans, tobacco, groundnuts, paprika, sorghum, wheat, rice, sunflower seeds) and livestock production. The country is also one of the biggest seed exporters in Africa. According to FAO, a severe and widespread drought in early 2024 sharply reduced agricultural output, with total cereal production estimated at 1.9 million tonnes—43% below the five-year average. Maize, the main staple, was hit hardest, with the harvest dropping to 1.6 million tonnes, nearly 50% below average. Beyond low yields, large areas of maize were left unharvested due to crop failure from prolonged dryness and extreme heat.
The industrial sector is estimated to account for 35.1% of GDP and 9.9% of employment, mostly thanks to the mining, construction, and manufacturing sub-sectors. Major industries of Zambia include copper mining and processing, construction, emerald mining, beverages, food, textiles, chemicals, fertilizer, and horticulture. Growth in the manufacturing industry is largely driven by the agro-processing of food and beverages as well as the textiles and leather sub-sectors. However, dependency on copper which is the country’s main export makes Zambia vulnerable to fluctuations in the world commodities prices. Overall, the manufacturing sector is estimated to account for 9% of GDP (World Bank), and it grew by +4%, -2.7%, and +1.4% in the first three quarters of 2024, respectively, recording an +8.1% increase in the fourth quarter. For the year as a whole, the mining and quarrying sector grew by 8.8% (data Zambia Statistical Agency).
Services play a major role in the Zambian economy. They represent 56.8% of GDP and employ 34.7% of the total workforce. The tertiary sector includes a large wholesale and retail industry. Tourism is also growing and has a positive ripple effect on the transport and hotel sectors. In 2024, the fastest-growing industries were information & communication (17.4%), arts, entertainment & recreation (15.4%), and accommodation & food services (11.1%). Other notable gains came from financial & insurance activities (10.3%), public administration & defence (9.5%), and mining & quarrying (8.8%). In contrast, electricity supply (-28.9%), administrative & support services (-23.9%), water supply (-12.2%), and agriculture, forestry & fishing (-9.2%) experienced significant contractions. (data Zambia Statistical Agency). By the end of 2023, the banking sector consisted of seventeen commercial banks, with five banks dominating the scene. Together, these five banks held 65% of the total sector assets and deposits (IMF, latest data available).
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 55.4 | 9.9 | 34.7 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 2.8 | 35.2 | 57.2 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | -9.2 | 3.5 | 5.6 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
Find more information about your business sector on our service Market Reports.
| Monetary Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.38 | 0.45 | 0.56 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
Find out all the exchange rates daily on our service Currency Converter.
See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
Zambia is open to foreign trade, which accounts for 78% of the country's GDP (World Bank, latest data available). Zambia's trade policy aims to diversify its economy through privatisation programs and the expansion of its export base. Copper is by far the country’s main export, accounting for 63.8% of the total in 2023, followed by electrical energy (3.8%), sulphur (2.7%), and unmanufactured tobacco (1.6%); whereas imports are led by petroleum oils (17.8%), motor vehicles for the transport of goods (5.9%), nitrogenous fertilisers (4.5%), sulphur (3.4%), and tractors (2.9% - data Comtrade, 2023).
The country is a member of COMESA and has signed Interim Economic Partnership Agreements (Interim EPAs) with the European Commission. The country became a member of the WTO in 1995. Customs duties are high, but the country has few non-tariff trade barriers. Certain products such as crude oil, medical supplies, and fertilisers are exempt from import duties. However, irregularities in the tax system and high transportation costs are real trade barriers. Zambian products are mainly exported towards Switzerland (41.4%), China (17.7%), the Democratic Republic of Congo (15.4%), Singapore (5.4%), and South Africa (3.7%); whereas imports come chiefly from South Africa (25.8%), China (16.2%), the United Arab Emirates (8.2%), India (5.6%), and Japan (5.3% - data Comtrade).
Zambia's trade balance has been experiencing a structural surplus in recent years. In 2023, however, exports of goods contracted by 17.2% y-o-y and amounted to USD 9.65 billion, while imports reached USD 9.32 billion (+3% - data WTO). As for services, exports reached USD 928 million, while imports amounted to USD 1.7 billion. The overall trade balance was estimated to be positive by 11.1% of GDP by the World Bank (from 18.2% one year earlier). According to the Zambia Statistics Agency, in 2024, Zambia's total exports were valued at ZMW 293.9 billion (around USD 11.2 billion), while total imports amounted to ZMW 293.7 billion, resulting in a slight trade surplus of ZMW 0.2 billion.
| Foreign Trade Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports of Goods (million USD) | 5,286 | 6,981 | 9,004 | 10,125 | 11,194 |
| Exports of Goods (million USD) | 7,924 | 11,013 | 11,643 | 10,431 | 11,198 |
| Imports of Services (million USD) | 1,041 | 1,276 | 1,854 | 1,674 | 1,793 |
| Exports of Services (million USD) | 556 | 526 | 939 | 933 | 1,212 |
| Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 32.5 | 34.0 | 29.1 | 37.4 | 27.6 |
| Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 46.7 | 52.2 | 40.2 | 40.8 | 35.0 |
| Trade Balance (million USD) | 3,216 | 4,816 | 3,368 | 1,373 | 1,301 |
| Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) | 2,692 | 4,037 | 2,422 | 574 | 745 |
| Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) | 79.2 | 86.2 | 69.3 | 78.2 | 62.5 |
Source: WTO – World Trade Organisation ; World Bank , Latest Available Data
| Main Customers (% of Exports) |
2023 |
|---|---|
| Switzerland | 41.4% |
| China | 17.7% |
| Democratic Republic of Congo | 15.4% |
| Singapore | 5.4% |
| South Africa | 3.7% |
| See More Countries | 16.3% |
| Main Suppliers (% of Imports) |
2023 |
|---|---|
| South Africa | 25.8% |
| China | 16.2% |
| United Arab Emirates | 8.2% |
| India | 5.6% |
| Japan | 5.3% |
| See More Countries | 38.9% |
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
To go further, check out our service Import-Export Flows.
Zambia is a multi-party country. The main political parties are:
- United Party for National Development (UPND): centre to centre-left, liberal, social liberal
- Patriotic Front (PF): centre-left, social democrat, socially conservative
- Party of National Unity and Progress (PNUP): centre-right, liberal, conservative.
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Any Comment About This Content? Report It to Us.
© eexpand, All Rights Reserved.
Latest Update: February 2026