Vietnam: Economic and Political Overview

Economic Indicators

Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing countries in the world, and its economy has shown resilience to trade wars and slower growth rates in neighbouring China. This accelerated economic pace is due to labour shifting from agriculture to manufacturing and services, private investment, a strong tourist sector, higher wages, and accelerating urbanization. Exports constitute an increasingly significant contribution to Vietnam's GDP, and certain sectors such as industrial production, textiles, electronics, and seafood production have been growing rapidly. According to preliminary government data, Vietnam's economy grew by 7.09% in 2024, reaching USD 476.3 billion, accelerating from 5.05% in 2023, driven by strong exports and robust foreign investment inflows. Growth is projected to reach 6.5% in 2025 and 2026, driven by sustained export expansion and improved investor and consumer confidence, although bank asset quality remains a concern amid increasing non-performing loans (World Bank).

As per the latest government projection, Vietnam's 2024 state budget revenue was projected to surpass USD 79.24 billion, 19.1% above the estimate, while expenditure was expected to reach 1.83 quadrillion VND. By year-end, public debt stood at 36-37% of GDP, government debt at 33-34%, and debt repayment at 20-21% of state budget revenue, remaining within the National Assembly's limit. Vietnam's external debt composition remains advantageous, with the majority of debt owed to bilateral and multilateral sources. This structure results in a reduced external debt service burden and bolsters its high external liquidity ratio (Fitch). Over the forecast period, the government is expected to maintain a tight fiscal policy, particularly as the economy returns to a higher growth trajectory. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.63% in 2024 and is forecasted to decrease to 2.6% by 2026 (World Bank).

Vietnam's unemployment rate was 2.24% in 2024, down 0.04 percentage points from 2023, according to the GSO. Urban unemployment stood at 2.53%, while rural areas recorded 2.05%. The jobless rate among those aged 15-24 rose to 7.83%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year. By the end of 2024, the workforce aged 15 and above reached 53 million, an increase of 575,400 from the previous year. Over the last decade, poverty declined impressively, dropping from 16.8% to 3.9% and is now below pre-pandemic levels (World Bank). Lastly, the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 16,193 in 2024 by the IMF.

Foreign Trade in Figures

Vietnam is one of the most open economies to international trade in Asia, with trade representing 166% of its GDP (World Bank, latest data available). In 2023, computers, electronic products, and components were the main export (17% of the total), followed by telephones and components (14.8%), textiles (9.3%), footwear (5.4%), and machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts (5.1%); whereas imports were led by computers, electronic products, and components (26.7%), machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts (13.3%), fabrics (4.0%), iron and steel (3.3%), and telephones and components (2.5% - data Ministry of Commerce).

The main export partners in 2023 were the United States (27.3% of all exports), China (17.1%), South Korea (6.6%), and Japan (6.6%), with ASEAN countries cumulatively accounting for 49.7%. On the other hand, Vietnam's main suppliers were China (33.9%), Japan (16.1%), South Korea (6.6%), and Taiwan (5.6% - data Vietnamese Customs). The Vietnamese economic model remains heavily dependent on foreign investment and exports, especially to the United States and China. In recent years, Vietnam has demonstrated a strong commitment to trade liberalization. It joined the WTO in 2007 and signed Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with the ASEAN countries and the United States. Vietnam also enjoys a cooperation agreement with the EU. A free trade agreement between both parties was ratified by the European Parliament in February 2020 and is expected to enter into force soon. A Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) - the world’s largest trade agreement - was signed by Vietnam in 2020, which includes 16 countries in total: Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand.

Vietnamese trade is characterized by some geographic inequality: the country shows a trade surplus with Western countries, but a series of deficits with some of its Asian neighbours. In 2023, the value of exports of goods stood at USD 353.78 billion (-9.5% y-o-y), with imports – at USD 325.7 billion - decreasing at a similar pace (-9.3%). As per services, exports reached USD 19.6 billion against USD 29 billion in imports. The World Bank estimated the trade balance to be positive by 8% of GDP (from 3.8% one year earlier). According to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, exports in 2024 increased by 14.3% year-on-year to reach USD 405.53 billion, driven by shipments of electronics, smartphones, clothing, and agricultural products. Imports rose by 16.7% to USD 380.76 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of USD 24.77 billion.

Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries

Vietnam Ministry of Trade
Vietnam Ministry of Planning and Investment

Statistical Office

General Statistics Office of Vietnam

Central Bank

State Bank of Vietnam

Stock Exchange

Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
Hanoi Stock Exchange

Economic Portals

Vietnam Economic Portal

Any Comment About This Content? Report It to Us.