Uzbekistan: Economic and Political Overview
In this page: Economic Indicators | Foreign Trade in Figures | Sources of General Economic Information | Political Outline
Uzbekistan has been implementing ambitious market-oriented economic reforms, which had a positive impact on the country's economy. In 2023, the government adopted the National Development Strategy 2030, with the goal of becoming an upper-middle-income country by the end of the decade. Uzbekistan's economy demonstrates resilience against spillovers from the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions, maintaining growth rates that rank among the highest in the CIS region. Real GDP growth in 2024 was strong at 6.5% (from 6.3% one year earlier), driven by robust domestic demand. The external current account deficit narrowed by 2.6 percentage points to 5.0% of GDP, supported by strong remittances, high commodity prices, rapid growth in non-gold exports, and a reduction in the one-off import surge from 2023. Growth is expected to stay strong, though external uncertainty has risen recently. Global tariff hikes have heightened uncertainty and tightened financial conditions, potentially impacting Uzbekistan through external demand, commodity prices, and financial flows. Despite these challenges, real GDP growth is projected to remain around 6% in 2025 and 2026, supported by sustained private consumption, investment, and ongoing structural reforms (data IMF).
Concerning public finances, in 2024, the consolidated government deficit decreased by 1.7 percentage points to 3.2% of GDP, mainly due to reduced energy subsidies and better-targeted social spending. Higher gold prices helped offset lower VAT revenues from increased VAT refunds. However, the decline in domestic demand from the smaller deficit was offset by higher public sector spending, including from SOEs, supported by an increase in the external borrowing ceiling. The government is expected to achieve its fiscal deficit target of 3% of GDP in 2025, continuing its fiscal consolidation efforts, including an additional round of energy subsidy reductions planned for mid-2025. By the end of Q4 2024, Uzbekistan's national debt reached USD 40.2 billion, or 35% of GDP, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance. Of this, USD 33.7 billion (84%) was external debt, with USD 17.9 billion raised at a fixed interest rate and USD 15.64 billion at variable rates. Domestic debt stood at nearly USD 6.5 billion, up from USD 5.9 billion at the start of the year, with USD 5.1 billion raised at a fixed interest rate and USD 1.2 billion obtained interest-free. The government is expected to stay within its borrowing limits of USD 5.5 billion, with public debt falling below 33% of GDP by 2027. Meanwhile, headline inflation in 2024 peaked at 10.6% in June, mainly due to essential energy tariff hikes. However, low food inflation helped offset the overall impact, with CPI inflation moderating to 9.8% in December before rising again to 10.1% by February 2025. A 50 basis point interest rate cut to 13.5% in July 2024 was countered by a 50 basis point increase in March 2025 as inflation remained high. As per the World Bank’s outlook, headline inflation is projected to decrease to 9% in 2025, gradually reaching the inflation target of 5% by 2027.
According to the Ministry of Poverty Alleviation and Employment of Uzbekistan, the unemployment rate among the working-age population has decreased from 10.5% in 2020 to 6.8% by the end of 2024. According to Coface, however, more than half of employment is in the informal sector. Moreover, the overall economic growth and increased urbanization in recent years contradict the persisting poverty. The upper middle-income poverty rate fell from 13.4% in 2023 to 10.9% in 2024 (USD 6.85/day, 2017 PPP), driven primarily by increased employment and growth in household agriculture and business income. Lastly, the IMF estimated the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) at USD 11,704 in 2024.
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (billions USD) | 101.58 | 112.65 | 127.41 | 141.22 | 155.44 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 5.7 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 2,820 | 3,051 | 3,379 | 3,669 | 3,955 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 32.5 | 34.3 | 32.8 | 31.4 | 30.7 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 5.7 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 6.8 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -7.80 | -7.08 | -7.80 | -7.80 | -7.97 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -7.7 | -6.3 | -6.1 | -5.5 | -5.1 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , Latest available data
Note: (e) Estimated Data
Uzbekistan has a workforce of 13.97 million out of its 35.65 million population (World Bank, latest data available). Although only 9% of the country’s land is considered arable, agriculture plays a major role in the economy, accounting for 20.6% of GDP and employing 13.9% of the total workforce. The main agricultural products include cotton, wheat, barley, rice, maize, potato, vegetables, fruits, and livestock. The country also produces silk and wool and is attempting to diversify its agriculture towards fruits and vegetables. According to the Statistics Agency, the total value of agricultural, forestry, and fisheries products/services in 2024 amounted to UZS 467 trillion. Crop and livestock farming, hunting, and related services comprised 96.6% of the total, while forestry accounted for 2.5% and fisheries for 0.9%. By the end of 2024, growth in the sector was driven by a 3.1% increase in crop and livestock farming, hunting, and associated services, along with a 3% rise in forestry.
The industrial sector accounts for 30.6% of GDP and employs 27.9% of the total workforce (World Bank). Manufactured products included textiles, food processing, machine building, metallurgy, mining, hydrocarbon extraction, and chemicals. Uzbekistan boasts the world's fourth-largest gold reserves and holds the twelfth position globally and second among the CIS countries in terms of mining. Metallurgy stands out as one of the nation's largest domestic industries, with copper, gold, silver, and uranium being the most extensively mined minerals. The oil and gas sector serves as a primary pillar of Uzbekistan's GDP, contributing substantially to its budget revenues, foreign exchange earnings, and industrial production framework. Additionally, it plays a crucial role in attracting investment to the country. Uzbekistan holds the position of the second-largest natural gas producer in Central Asia and is recognized for its substantial hydrocarbon reserves. In 2024, the industrial sector’s value-added rose by 6.8%, driven mainly by growth in mining and quarrying (1.9%), manufacturing (7.7%), utilities (5.4%), and waste management services (5.6%). Construction activity increased by 8.8% compared to 2023, with building and structure construction up 105.5%, civil engineering works up 124.7%, and specialised construction works up 106.4% (data from the Statistics Agency).
The services sector accounts for 43.9% of GDP and employs 58.2% of the total workforce (World Bank). Key services include transportation and tourism. In 2024, the country welcomed 10.2 million foreign tourists, generating USD 3.5 billion in revenue—a 1.5-fold increase from 2023—driven by strong growth from key markets such as China (+80%), Italy (+50%), India (+60%), and Germany (+20%). Domestic tourism also thrived, with 22.7 million visits recorded under the ‘Travel Around Uzbekistan!’ initiative. Uzbekistan's banking sector represents around 69.7% of the country's GDP. The dominance of large state-owned and state-controlled banks persists within the sector, with only five such banks managing 61% of all assets in the banking sector (data OECD). By the end of 2024, the services sector grew by 7.7%, reaching UZS 657.3 trillion in gross value added. Trade rose by 11.5%, accommodation and food services by 10.7%, transport and storage by 8.5%, and information and communication by 24.7%. Retail trade made up 56.1% of trade value-added, while transport and storage accounted for 5.4% of GDP, led by road transport (55.7%). Information and communication contributed 2.7% to the economy, with telecommunications services making up 35% of its value. ICT services represented 2.4% of GDP, driven by telecoms (38.2%) and IT services (43.3% - data from the Statistics Agency).
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 13.9 | 27.9 | 58.2 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 20.6 | 30.6 | 43.9 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 4.1 | 6.2 | 7.3 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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| Monetary Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uzbek Sum (UZS) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR | 83.39 | 54.82 | 237.80 | 248.92 | 255.53 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
According to the latest available data by the World Bank, Uzbekistan's foreign trade represents 64% of GDP (World Bank, latest data available). As a producer of oil, natural gas, gold, and cotton, natural resources dominate the country’s exports. According to the National Statistics Agency, in 2023, exports were primarily comprised of gold (33.4% of the total), followed by services (21.2%), industrial goods (16.6%), food and live animals (7.6%), chemical products (5.4%), and mineral fuels (3.9%). Uzbekistan's import pattern reflects its continuous industrialization and modernization efforts, with machinery and transport equipment (39.2%), industrial goods (16.6%), and chemicals and related products (12.8%) dominating the import structure. In 2023, Uzbekistan had 35,000 foreign trade participants, up by 3,500 from 2022, including 7,300 exporters (up 89) and 27,700 importers (up 3,400).
The country’s main export destinations in 2023 were Russia (13.5%), China (10.1%), Kazakhstan (5.6%), Turkey (5.1%), Afghanistan (3.5%), and Kyrgyzstan (2.6%), whereas imports came chiefly from China (29.5%), Russia (17.2%), Kazakhstan (7.9%), South Korea (6%), and Turkey (4.9% - data Statistics Agency). In 2023, CIS countries accounted for 32.9% of Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover, with trade volume down 6.8% compared to 2022. As of 2024, Uzbekistan has trade relations with 198. The country is an observer in the Eurasian Economic Union, and although is not a member of the WTO yet, the nation is working on accession.
According to WTO data, in 2023, Uzbekistan exported goods for a total value of USD 20 billion, while imports totalled USD 36.7 billion (+31.1% and +30.1% y-o-y, respectively). As per commercial services, Uzbekistan exported USD 5.3 billion against USD 7.6 billion in imports. The country has a structurally negative trade balance. The trade deficit was estimated at 17% of GDP in 2023 by the World Bank, compared to 15.2% one year earlier. According to the Statistics Agency, Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover rose by 3.8% in 2024, reaching USD 65.9 billion—an increase of USD 2.4 billion from 2023. Exports grew by 8.4% to USD 26.9 billion, while imports edged up 0.8% to USD 39 billion, reducing the trade deficit by 12% to USD 12.04 billion.
| Foreign Trade Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports of Goods (million USD) | 21,867 | 20,020 | 23,886 | 28,264 | 36,781 |
| Exports of Goods (million USD) | 14,930 | 13,281 | 14,092 | 15,287 | 20,045 |
| Imports of Services (million USD) | 5,398 | 3,590 | 5,027 | 7,301 | 7,649 |
| Exports of Services (million USD) | 3,127 | 1,704 | 2,300 | 4,815 | 5,333 |
| Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | 13.4 | -14.9 | 23.4 | 13.5 | 11.5 |
| Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | 16.4 | -20.1 | 13.4 | 24.6 | 7.7 |
| Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 39.6 | 34.1 | 36.2 | 39.5 | 40.7 |
| Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 25.4 | 21.9 | 21.3 | 24.3 | 23.7 |
| Trade Balance (million USD) | -7,291 | -6,216 | -8,767 | -11,660 | -14,859 |
| Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) | -9,562 | -8,102 | -11,494 | -14,677 | -17,597 |
| Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) | 65.0 | 56.1 | 57.5 | 63.9 | 64.4 |
Source: WTO – World Trade Organisation ; World Bank , Latest Available Data
| Main Customers (% of Exports) |
2023 |
|---|---|
| Russia | 14.4% |
| China | 8.4% |
| Kazakhstan | 6.4% |
| Türkiye | 6.3% |
| Afghanistan | 3.6% |
| See More Countries | 60.9% |
| Main Suppliers (% of Imports) |
2023 |
|---|---|
| China | 31.6% |
| Russia | 17.8% |
| Kazakhstan | 8.1% |
| South Korea | 6.5% |
| Türkiye | 4.9% |
| See More Countries | 31.0% |
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
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| 4.7 bn USD of services exported in 2022 | |
|---|---|
| 31.46% | |
| 30.33% | |
| Personal travelPersonal travel | 28.09% |
| OtherOther | 38.21% |
| Business travelBusiness travel | 2.24% |
| 29.35% | |
| 5.71% | |
| 1.53% | |
| 1.16% | |
| 0.23% | |
| 0.20% | |
| 0.03% | |
| 0.01% | |
| 7.2 bn USD of services imported in 2022 | |
|---|---|
| 44.40% | |
| 43.30% | |
| Personal travelPersonal travel | 27.80% |
| OtherOther | 12.31% |
| Business travelBusiness travel | 15.49% |
| 3.30% | |
| 2.91% | |
| 2.39% | |
| 1.54% | |
| 1.00% | |
| 0.68% | |
| 0.34% | |
| 0.14% | |
Source: United Nations Statistics Division, Latest Available Data
Birlik (Unity), Erk (Freedom), and Birdamlik (People's Democratic Movement) are opposition groups that promote democratic reforms but are not legally registered and are effectively banned from political participation in Uzbekistan.
The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
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Latest Update: May 2025
