Syria: Economic and Political Overview

Economic Overview

For the latest updates on the key economic responses from governments to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, please consult the IMF's policy tracking platform Policy Responses to COVID-19.

Syria has been plagued by a devastating war since 2011. According to a study published by the World Bank, the conflict caused a contraction of the GDP by more than 50% compared to 2010 (World Bank), and the humanitarian crisis has claimed more than 500,000 victims. Beyond the immediate impact of the conflict, the economy suffers from the compounding effects of the pandemic, adverse weather events, regional fragility, and macroeconomic instability. However, it is extremely difficult to assess the financial health of the country as the wartime GDP can be very unstable due to foreign aid and continued destruction. The return of several provinces under the control of the Bashar Al-Assad regime was expected to restore certain stability necessary for the start of reconstruction and economic recovery; however, the Lebanese crisis, the new sanctions imposed by the United States and the outbreak of COVID-19 further deteriorated the situation. After an estimated contraction of 2.6% in 2022 (to USD 15.5 billion in constant 2015 prices), real GDP is expected to contract further in 2023 (World Bank).

With the help of his Russian and Iranian allies, Bashar Al-Assad has regained control of most of the Syrian territory and considers himself victorious in an essentially ended war. But the country is in ruins, the destruction of the physical capital being estimated at around USD 120 billion, and the estimated loss in GDP at nearly 325 billion USD (UNESCWA). Overall, the estimates of reconstruction costs of Syria’s productive capacity range between USD 250 billion to 400 billion (Coface); nevertheless, the long-awaited reconstruction does not materialize. Businesses face energy and water shortages and are regularly shaken by liquidity constraints. International sanctions have practically frozen trade with the outside world and neighbouring partner countries (Iran, Lebanon) are facing economic and political difficulties. Impacted by the Lebanese crisis, tougher U.S. sanctions under the Caesar Act and the COVID-19 pandemic, Syria's economy deteriorated further since 2020. Given Syria’s heavy reliance on imports, currency falls quickly fed into higher domestic prices, causing high inflation: according to a report by the World Bank, annual inflation reached 90% in 2021, after hitting 114% in 2020. Meanwhile, government spending continued to be constrained by low revenues and the lack of access to financing. The current account of Syria is expected to remain firmly in deficit because of an extremely high trade deficit, contributing to the drain of foreign exchange reserves.

On the humanitarian level, the situation is catastrophic. About 6.2 million people have been internally displaced and 5.6 million are officially registered as refugees (World Bank). The social situation of the country was already serious before the crisis: a third of the population lived below the poverty line, unemployment affected 20% of the population (75% of the unemployed were aged 15 to 24) and the demographic growth rate was very high (3.3% per year). Since the start of the war, the situation has only gotten worse. The middle class has disappeared: according to UN estimates, more than 80% of the population now lives below the poverty line and half of the population is unemployed (CIA Factbook). Essential goods and services, including food, clothing, housing, and fuel, account for about three-fourths of the consumption basket, with food alone accounting for about 40% of consumption. According to the World Food Program, 12.4 million Syrian are now food insecure, almost 60% of the country’s population. Moreover, Syria’s working-age population has significantly shrunk, particularly in its male component; however, the impact of this demographic shock has been compensated by an increase in labour force participation, leaving the overall number of employed Syrians almost unchanged at around 5.2 million (World Bank). The number of women entering the labour market recorded a steep increase, almost doubling from 13% in 2010 to 26% in 2021. Syria’s human and physical capital has been severely affected by the conflict, whose structural implications are likely to affect the country’s future growth prospects.

Main Sectors of Industry

Syria’s long civil war has caused the near collapse of the economic output. Much of the infrastructure was destroyed and the economic sanctions are limiting access to financing. The Lebanese crisis, the tougher sanctions introduced by the Caesar Act and the COVID-19 outbreak further impacted all economic sectors.
Agriculture represents around 36.6 of its GDP and is estimated to employ 10% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available); agriculture has always been a fragile sector since it directly depends on climate conditions and especially on water scarcity, a key regional factor. Spices, olive and olive oil, cotton, wheat and barley are among the main crops and exports. In 2021, a decline in irrigated land area, low precipitation, and fuel shortages adversely affected wheat crops. The latest figures from FAO show that in the 2021/22 crop season, wheat production was estimated at around 1.1 million tonnes, with a marginal improvement compared to the 2021 harvest, but still one‑quarter of the pre‑crisis average of 4.1 million tonnes (2002‑2011). At 300,000 tonnes, barley production was about 15% of the plentiful harvests gathered in 2019 and 2020 and less than 40% of the pre‑crisis average.

Industry had a relatively important place, owing to textile, chemical and oil industries, the latter representing 14% of the Syrian GDP prior to the war. Industry, as a whole, accounts for 22.1% of the economy and employs around 23% of the workforce (World Bank). The hydrocarbon sector is essential to the Syrian economy and contributes up to 65% of the country’s exports. Since the start of the conflict, industrial production declined, affected by shortages in fuel and power, limited access to capital, severe destruction of infrastructure, and the relocation of major manufacturing bases.

The tertiary sector, mainly the tourism sector, was well established before the civil war and currently represents 41.3% of GDP (World Bank). Despite the war, a number of foreign banks are still operating. The sector of services is estimated to employ 67% of the workforce (World Bank).

Source: World Bank, Latest data available.

Indicator of Economic Freedom

Score:

N/A/100

World Rank:

N/A

Regional Rank:

N/A

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries

Ministry of the Economy
Ministry of Finance (in Arabic)

Statistical Office

Central Bureau of Statistics

Central Bank

Central Bank of Syria (in Arabic)

Stock Exchange

Damascus Securities Exchange

Other Useful Resources

Nations Online
Syria Report

Main Online Newspapers

Syrian Arab News Agency
The Syria Times
The Syrian Observer

Economic Portals

Library of Congress
Dmoz
Araboo

Political Outline

Current Political Leaders

President: Bashar al-Assad (since July 2000, re-elected in May 2021)
Vice President : Najah al-Attar (since March 2006)
Prime Minister: Hussein Arnous (since 30 August 2020)

Next Election Dates

Presidential: 2028
Legislative: 2024

Current Political Context

Syria has been experiencing a devastating war since 2011, in which neighbouring countries or groups and major powers, including Turkey, Iran, the United States and Russia, and their allies are involved. Supported by Russia and Iran, but still under sanctions from the United States and European countries, Bashar al-Assad's regime has taken over a large part of the country, but the clashes continue. Russia, Iran and Hezbollah provide the military and logistical support necessary to maintain the Damascus regime.
In the 2021 presidential elections, Bashar al-Assad won 95.2% of the total votes, securing a fourth seven-year presidential term. Improved diplomatic and economic ties with the neighbouring countries, notably Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, led some analysts to think that the normalization process may cause Damascus to demonstrate less commitment to the political track (Security Council Report). The country is in a dire situation, exacerbated by the United States Caesar Act sanctions package. Indeed, Syria is the scene of clashes between Israel and the United States on the one hand, and Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah on the other. Furthermore, long strips of land along the border with Turkey are under the control of Turkish‑backed forces, and by the end of 2022, the Turkish Air Force has conducted a series of airstrikes against the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in Aleppo, Ar-Raqqa, and Al-Hasakah.
Finally, the Russian invasion of Ukraine may reverberate in Syria, as Moscow – al-Assad’s main ally – decided to withdraw some of its troops and military assets in order to redeploy them in Ukraine.

Main Political Parties

The main political coalition in power in Syria, the National Progressive Front (FNP), brings together parties supporting the nationalist and socialist policies of President Al-Assad.
It regroups :
- Party "Baath", or Socialist Party of the Arab Renaissance: party of President Assad, in power since 1949
- Syrian Social Nationalist Party
- Party of Unionist Socialists
- The Communist Party of Syria
- Social Democratic Unionists
- National Vow Movement
- Arab Democratic Union.

Amendments to the Constitution theoretically allow the existence of a multiparty system, removing the clause imposing the Baath Party at the head of the state and society. Despite this, the May 2012 elections, which took place in the midst of a rebellion against the government, were largely boycotted by the main opposition parties. The latter have long survived in hiding or in exile, like the Islamist or Kurdish parties, which the Constitution prohibits in the name of their religious or sectarian character.
The main opposition party is the Syrian National Council (CNS): opposes President Al-Assad and seeks to establish a state.

Type of State

Syria is a republic officially based on a parliamentary democracy, although it is dominated by an authoritarian regime.

Executive Power

The President is the head of state. He is elected by popular referendum for seven years. The president is the commander-in-chief of the army and holds executive power. It can declare war, issue laws, amend the constitution and appoint civilian and military personnel. He also appoints the Prime Minister (head of government) and his Council of Ministers, for as long as he wishes.

Legislative Power

The legislative power is unicameral in Syria. The parliament is called the People's Council (Majlis al-Shaab). It has 250 seats and its members are elected by popular vote to serve four-year terms. Syria has been under a state of emergency since 1963, which gives the President special powers.

Indicator of Freedom of the Press

World Rank:

173/180

Source: World Press Freedom Index, Reporters Without Borders

Indicator of Political Freedom

Ranking:

Not Free

Political Freedom:

7/7

Civil Liberties:

7/7

Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House

COVID-19 Country Response

Travel restrictions

Regularly updated travel information for all countries with regards to Covid-19 related entry regulations, flight bans, test and vaccines requirements is available on TravelDoc Infopage.
To find information about the current travel regulations, including health requirements, it is also advised to consult Travel Regulations Map provided and updated on a daily basis by IATA.

Import & export restrictions

A general overview of trade restrictions which were adopted by different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic is available on the International Trade Centre's COVID-19 Temporary Trade Measures webpage.

Economic recovery plan

For the general overview of the key economic policy responses to the COVID-19 pandemic (fiscal, monetary and macroeconomic) undertaken by the government of Syria please consult the country's dedicated section in the IMF’s Policy Tracker platform.

Support plan for businesses

For an evaluation of impact of the Covid pandemic on SMEs and an inventory of country responses to foster SME resilience, refer to the OECD's SME Covid-19 Policy Responses document.
You can also consult the World Bank's Map of SME-Support Measures in Response to COVID-19.