In this page: Economic Outline | Political Outline | COVID-19 Country Response
Despite Sweden's exposure to global trade dynamics, Covid-19 has had a rather limited impact on its economy compared with most other European countries. GDP returned to its pre-pandemic level in 2021 and continued growing in 2022 (+2.8%). Nevertheless, the Swedish economy contracted in 2023, mainly due to a decrease in private consumption and a decline in housing construction. Factors such as high inflation, uncertainty, and rising interest rates contributed to these challenges. In fact, the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances over the years had rendered the Swedish economy susceptible to the impact of tightening monetary conditions. In 2024, uncertainties regarding income due to a cooling labour market and housing market pressures are expected to restrain private consumption. The recovery in household consumption in 2025 is anticipated to be supported by real disposable income gains resulting from decreasing inflation. Housing construction is projected to decrease, influenced by reduced dwelling valuations, limited borrowing capacity, and rising construction costs. Conversely, robust corporate balance sheets and innovative projects in manufacturing are likely to bolster investments in equipment and information and ICT. Overall, the IMF forecasts growth of 0.6% this year and 2.4% in 2025 (-0.2% and 1,3%, respectively, according to the EU Commission).
Sweden is among the few advanced European economies to show both a current account surplus and low public debt. Having achieved a surplus in 2022, the general government balance experienced a minor deficit in 2023 (-0.3% of GDP). Although tax revenues, particularly from corporate income tax, remained robust at the central government level, increased spending on items like indexed social transfers and pensions contributed to the deficit. Over the forecast horizon, increasing unemployment is poised to impact income tax revenue negatively, while automatic stabilizers are expected to elevate expenditure through social transfers to households. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest in the EU and was estimated at 32.3% in 2023 (IMF). It is assumed to remain stable in the near term. The headline HICP inflation rate reached its peak at the end of 2022 and has subsequently decreased, following a decline in energy prices and the alleviation of supply constraints. It was estimated at 6.9% in 2023 but is projected to gradually decrease to 2.7% by 2025 (IMF).
The country’s unemployment rate was stable at 7.5% in 2023. Nevertheless, employment growth is anticipated to slow down, responding to the cyclical downturn with a delay. The IMF expects the unemployment rate to increase by 8.1% in 2024, while average real wages gradually move into positive territory on the back of falling inflation. Overall, Swedish citizens enjoy a high per capita GDP of USD 66,209 (PPP – 2023), 16.2% higher than the EU’s average, and the European Anti-Poverty Network (EAPN) estimates that only 2% of Sweden’s population lives in serious material poverty conditions. Nominal wage growth, however, has been lagging behind inflation, resulting in a reduction of households’ real disposable income.
Main Indicators | 2022 | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP (billions USD) | 590.41 | 593.27 | 623.05 | 651.28 | 680.16 |
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 2.7 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
GDP per Capita (USD) | 56,114 | 56,225 | 58,529 | 60,673 | 62,870 |
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | 0.6 | -0.0 | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.5 |
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 32.9 | 35.9 | 36.0 | 35.0 | 34.0 |
Inflation Rate (%) | 8.1 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 7.5 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 7.7 |
Current Account (billions USD) | 34.52 | 36.92 | 37.09 | 34.21 | 32.97 |
Current Account (in % of GDP) | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, Latest data available.
Note : (E) Estimated data
Agriculture represents 1.5% of the Swedish GDP and employs around 2% of the workforce (World Bank, latest data available). The main agricultural products are grains (particularly oats, wheat, barley, and rye), potatoes and other root crops, vegetables, and fruits, as well as dairy products, meat and wood. While production exceeds domestic consumption, a significant amount of food needs to be imported due to a lack of crop variety. Sweden has a wealth of natural resources: forests, iron, lead, copper, zinc and hydroelectric energy. The country has 3 million hectares of agricultural area and almost 28 million hectares of forest area (FAO), with a total of 58,218 agricultural holdings (data Swedish Board of Agriculture – 2022).
The industrial sector contributes 24% of GDP and employs 18% of the workforce. It is dominated by groups such as Volvo, Saab, Ericsson, ABB, AstraZeneca, Electrolux, Ikea, H&M, etc. Sweden's main manufacturing activities are steel, automotive, chemical, forestry, industrial machinery and equipment, automation and food processing equipment. The World Bank estimates that the manufacturing sector alone accounts for 13% of GDP. The new technologies and biotechnologies sectors are also of significant importance in the economy. According to figures from Statistics Sweden, in the first ten months of 2023, total orders in industry decreased by 1.6% year-on-year.
The tertiary sector, driven by telecommunications and IT equipment, employs 80% of the active workforce and contributes 63.6% of GDP. The banking sector is comprised of a total of 121 banks, including 41 commercial banks, 33 foreign banks, 45 savings banks and two cooperative banks; moreover, it employs around 2% of the workforce, accounts for 4.5% of GDP and contributes to 10% of the corporate taxes revenue (European Banking Federation). The travel and tourism industry is also important to the Swedish economy: according to the latest data from Visitory, between January-October 2023, 61,1 million nights were spent by tourists in Sweden (+1.1% year-on-year).
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
---|---|---|---|
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 2.0 | 18.2 | 79.9 |
Value Added (in % of GDP) | 1.4 | 23.7 | 63.9 |
Value Added (Annual % Change) | -1.3 | 1.4 | 3.1 |
Source: World Bank, Latest data available.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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A party must gain 4% of the national vote or 12% of a constituency vote to enter the single-chamber parliament. Coalitions and minority governments are widespread. Social Democratic Party and Moderate Party are the largest parties in the parliament.
The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
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Latest Update: September 2024