Economic and Political Overview

flag Libya Libya: Economic and Political Overview

In this page: Economic Indicators | Foreign Trade in Figures | Sources of General Economic Information | Political Outline

 

Economic Indicators

The Libyan economy is heavily reliant on the oil and gas sector and remains largely undiversified, with a dominant public sector. In 2023, oil and gas accounted for 60% of GDP, 94% of exports, and 97% of government revenues. While the private sector is underdeveloped, it holds considerable growth potential. Years of conflict and division have resulted in insufficient public investment and poor infrastructure maintenance, despite rising oil production. This, combined with a disruptive state presence in the economy, has hindered the development of the private sector. After growing by 10.2% in 2023, overall GDP shrunk by an estimated 10% in 2024 as oil GDP contracted by 15%. Non-oil GDP is projected to grow at an average of 1.3% during the forecast period, mainly driven by consumption. As oil production recovers in 2025 and 2026, GDP growth is expected to rebound to 12% in the medium term (data from World Bank).

Recently, Libya has been in a political dispute over the governance of the Central Bank of Libya (CBL). In August 2024, the Presidential Council decided to replace the Governor and renew the Board of Directors, but this was opposed by other political factions. Amid rising tensions, the UN Mission in Libya began mediating to find a peaceful resolution. Beyond its monetary policy role, the CBL is crucial to managing the country’s oil wealth and fiscal affairs. Oil revenues had been declining even before the CBL crisis, mainly due to lower energy prices. They totalled USD 10.5 billion in January-July 2024, down 5.4% from 2023. As a result, the fiscal surplus shrank from 4.6% to 1.7% of GDP between the first seven months of 2023 and 2024, while public spending rose by 9.7%, driven by higher wages and subsidies. With the decline in oil receipts and the easing of foreign currency constraints by the CBL, both fiscal and external balances were expected to worsen in 2024, with deficits of 5.7% and 21% of GDP, respectively. However, both balances are anticipated to improve in the medium term as oil production recovers (data from World Bank). The inflation rate in the Tripoli region averaged 1.9% in the first seven months of 2024, down from 2.7% during the same period in 2023, driven by lower food and housing prices. Based on official data, inflation in Tripoli is expected to remain controlled at 2.5% in 2025, assuming a prompt resolution of the CBL crisis, moderating global commodity prices, and Libya’s generous subsidy system.

Continued inflation and low oil production exacerbated poverty in a country already ravaged by civil war and repeated terrorist attacks. The Tripoli government has implemented an active policy of job creation, especially in the public sector but, according to the National Labor Force Survey 2022, the unemployment rate was estimated at 15.3%, with higher rates among women and youth at 18.4% and 23.1%, respectively. Access to basic services, such as water, is becoming increasingly difficult, particularly following the floods in Derna (2023) and Ghat and Tahala (2024), as well as the groundwater surge in Zliten.

 
Main Indicators 2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)2027 (E)2028 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 42.1647.4848.7250.1851.96
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) -0.617.34.31.81.9
GDP per Capita (USD) 6,0986,8016,9097,0457,223
Inflation Rate (%) 2.12.32.32.32.3
Current Account (billions USD) 2.924.944.264.244.24
Current Account (in % of GDP) 6.910.48.78.48.2

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , Latest available data

Note: (e) Estimated Data

Main Sectors of Industry

Libya's 7.3 million population includes a workforce of 2.42 million. Agriculture's share in Libya's economy is negligible, accounting for 1.8% of GDP and employing 8.7% of the workforce (World Bank). Main products include wheat, barley, olives, dates, citrus, vegetables, peanuts, soybeans, and cattle. Arid climate conditions and the poor quality of the soil severely limit agricultural production. The primary limitation on agricultural production is the landscape, with only approximately 12% of the total 15.4 million hectares being arable. Cereal crops are grown in coastal regions, where rainfed production or cropping with supplemental irrigation is feasible, as well as in certain arid areas in the south, under complete irrigation. According to FAO, cereal production in 2024 was estimated at 164,000 tonnes, about 22% below average, due to poor rainfall, high temperatures in the northwest, and costly inputs; while cereal imports for 2024/25 are expected to exceed 3.2 million tonnes, with wheat imports forecast at 1.4 million tonnes—around 4% above average.

Industry is the backbone of the Libyan economy because of the strong petrochemical industry. It accounts for 77.3% of GDP, employing 23.2% of the active population (World Bank). Production includes petroleum, petrochemicals, aluminium, iron, steel, food processing, textiles, handicrafts, and cement, while manufacturing is underdeveloped (3% of GDP). Although the Libyan petrochemical industry, especially petroleum exports, were negatively impacted by the pandemic and the drop of oil prices, the sector showed signs of recovery in recent years: Libya's state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced that the country’s daily crude oil production surpassed the target set for 2024, reaching 1,405,609 barrels, along with 52,633 barrels of condensates.

Services account for 25.4% of GDP and its share in total employment stands at 68.1% (World Bank). Although this is the second-largest sector in Libya, significant industries, such as tourism and retail, are still underdeveloped. Financial services and transportation, however, account for a significant part of the service sector. According to the IMF, as of 2023, Libya's banking sector is described as rudimentary. The country hosts 20 banks, with their combined assets totaling around LYD 143 billion. Loans and credit facilities make up less than 15% of the total assets in the banking sector, while the majority, approximately 60%, consists of balances held at the Central Bank of Libya (CBL).

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 8.7 23.2 68.1
Value Added (in % of GDP) 2.4 73.5 28.3
Value Added (Annual % Change) -0.9 -5.5 15.2

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Monetary Indicators 20202021202220232024
Lybian Dinar (LYD) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR 0.040.110.110.110.10

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 
 

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Business environment ranking

Definition:

The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.

Score:
3.44/10
World Rank:
81/82

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024

 

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.

 

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Foreign Trade in Figures

Trade has been an important element of the Libyan economy since the early 2000s, peaking at 108% of GDP in 2009, before the country became embroiled in another civil war. Nevertheless, its share recovered in the last few years and, according to the latest available data, it reached 156% in 2023 (World Bank). Main exports included crude oil, refined petroleum products, and natural gas (94% of total exports, UNCTAD), as well as gold, iron, and copper. Significant items of import include refined petroleum (mainly for re-export), broadcasting equipment, rolled tobacco, cars, and jewellery.

 As a member of organizations such as the Arab League, the African Union (AU), and the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), Libya engages in multilateral discussions and initiatives aimed at fostering cooperation and economic development. Additionally, Libya has historically participated in regional trade agreements, including agreements within the Arab world and Africa, to promote trade relations with neighbouring countries. However, due to political instability and conflict in recent years, Libya's active participation in international trade organizations and agreements has been limited and the country is not a member of the WTO. In 2023, the main export partners were Italy (22.5%), Germany (14.6%), Spain (8.7%), France (7.5%), and China (6.2%), with imports coming chiefly from China (17.4%), Turkey (14.6%), Italy (8.2%), the United Arab Emirates (8.2%), and Egypt (8% - data OEC).

According to the last available data from the WTO, goods exports stood at USD 35.2 billion in 2023, against USD 20.5 billion in imports (-6.4% and -30.7% year-on-year, respectively). That same year, the World Bank estimated Libya’s external trade balance surplus at 14.6% of GDP (from 27.6% one year earlier). Preliminary figures from Argus tracking data show that, in 2024, the country exported 973,000 barrels per day across its 12 crude grades, only slightly below the 989,000 b/d exported in 2023—the second-highest annual export volume since the 2011 civil war.

 
Foreign Trade Indicators 20202021202220232024
Imports of Goods (million USD) 11,09914,95616,12718,19517,566
Exports of Goods (million USD) 8,44330,97239,19633,07929,603
Imports of Services (million USD) 3,2587,5767,6819,299n/a
Exports of Services (million USD) 2018282629n/a
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) -40.246.6-13.9-16.5-3.0
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) -66.3126.1-19.97.1-6.9
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 30.672.264.372.356.8
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) 20.492.192.087.272.0
Trade Balance (million USD) 16415,34020,08113,881n/a
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) -4,7976,97311,9594,469n/a
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) 51.0164.3156.3159.4128.8

Source: WTO – World Trade Organisation ; World Bank , Latest Available Data

 
 
 
 
 

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Main Services

Source: United Nations Statistics Division, Latest Available Data

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Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries
Ministry of Finance (in Arabic)
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (in Arabic)
Statistical Office
Bureau of Statistics and Census Libya (in Arabic)
Central Bank
Central Bank of Libya
Stock Exchange
Libyan Exchange Stock Market
Economic Portals
General portal

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Political Outline

Current Political Leaders
Chairman of the Presidential Council: Mohammed al-MANFI (since 5 February 2021)
Prime Minister: Abd-al-Hamid DUBAYBAH (since 5 February 2021)
Next Election Dates
Presidential and parliamentary elections: April 2026.
Main Political Parties
The Government of National Accord (GNA) was established as an interim authority following Libya’s civil war and was recognised by the United Nations. However, it faced strong opposition from the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar. In March 2021, the House of Representatives (HoR), formerly aligned with the LNA, approved the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in an effort to bridge the divide between rival administrations.

The main political parties in the country include:

- National Forces Alliance (NFA): liberal, moderate coalition comprising at least 58 parties, holds almost half of parliamentary seats
- Justice and Construction Party (JCP): right-wing, abstains from government, large Muslim Brotherhood faction, Islamist, can no longer operate openly
- National Front Party: centre-left, liberal, progressive
- Union for Homeland: centre, localist, populist
- National Centrist Party: centre, nationalist, Islamic democracy, Islamic liberalism
- Homeland Party: conservative, Islamic democracy.
Type of State
Libya’s post-revolution legal system is undergoing constant change, influenced by both governmental and non-governmental entities.
Executive Power

Under Muammar Gaddafi, Libya's political and economic system was based on the Green Book, which outlined his "Third Universal Theory"—a proposed synthesis of liberalism and Marxism.

After Gaddafi’s fall in 2011, the UN recognised the Transitional National Council (TNC) as the interim authority. It was succeeded in 2015 by the Government of National Accord (GNA), which faced opposition from the eastern-based Libyan National Army (LNA), led by Khalifa Haftar.

In March 2021, a Government of National Unity (GNU) was formed to unify rival administrations, with Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh as Prime Minister. However, political divisions persisted, and in 2022 the eastern House of Representatives appointed a rival government under Fathi Bashagha.

As of 2025, Libya remains divided between the Tripoli-based GNU and the eastern-based Government of National Stability, with ongoing UN-led efforts to organise national elections and reunify institutions.

Legislative Power
Under Gaddafi, Libya had a unicameral legislature known as the General People's Congress (GPC). Its members—referred to as secretaries—were elected from around 600 local units called basic popular congresses, serving four-year terms.

Today, Libya’s legislative structure remains divided. The High Council of State functions as an advisory body, primarily supporting efforts to reconcile the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (formerly the GNA) with the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). The Council has 145 members, appointed by the remnants of the former General National Congress, and provides recommendations to both the HoR and the Tripoli-based executive.
 
 

Indicator of Political Freedom

Definition:

The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.

Political Freedom:
7/7


 

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Latest Update: March 2026