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Since its independence, Latvia has implemented market-oriented reforms. The country's economy has performed well due to steady growth in domestic consumption and the contribution of foreign investment. As a member of the EU since 2004 (and of the Eurozone since 2014), it has benefited from substantial European funding. The growth rate has been positive since 2011 and was among the highest in the EU countries before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the IMF estimates, real GDP grew 2.5% in 2022 (1.8% as per the EU Commission) underpinned by strong growth in private consumption. Given the carry-over effect of the decline in activity in the second half of the year, growth is expected to remain lacklustre in 2023, with the EU Commission expecting a 0.1% growth rate over the year, followed by an uptick in 2024 (+2.7%).
Latvia's macroeconomic indicators are generally positive, as the country pursues tax and labour reforms in accordance with its stability programme. In 2022, the budget deficit was estimated at 6.1% of GDP by the IMF as the government energy support measures cost EUR 445 million. No funds have so far been allocated for the heating season 2023/2024, while the one-off investments linked to national security should amount to 0.8% of GDP: overall, the IMF expects the budget deficit to shrink to 2.2% of GDP this year and 1.5% in 2024, as the government plans to reduce the structural deficit to 0.5% of GDP by 2025. The government debt-to-GDP ratio increased marginally to 46% in 2022 but is expected to follow a downward trend over the forecast horizon, reaching 43.7% by 2024. The government's interest payments will increase to 2.2% of revenue in 2023-24, from 1.3% of revenue in 2021 (Fitch Ratings). Driven by rapid energy price increases, inflation reached the record level of 16.5% in 2022 and is forecast to remain in double digits through most of the first semester of 2023, before easing gradually to an annual average of 8% and returning closer to the ECB’s target the following year (2.9%).
The unemployment rate stood at 7.4% in 2022. In 2023, the effects of inflation will cause negative real wage growth, and low consumer sentiment will likely shrink household consumption. Overall, the IMF forecasts an unemployment rate of 7.2%. Latvia has to face a strong emigration of skilled youth and the country has one of the lowest population growth rates in the EU (-0.8% in 2021 - World Bank, latest data available), with birth numbers declining continuously. The latest data published by the Central Statistical Bureau (CSB) show that 22.5% of the country’s population are at risk of poverty. The GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 38,124 in 2022 by the IMF.
Main Indicators | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 (E) | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP (billions USD) | 34.57 | 39.75 | 42.23 | 47.40 | 50.20 |
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | -2.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 2.9 |
GDP per Capita (USD) | 18,124 | 20,997 | 22,348 | 25,136 | 26,677 |
General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -3.5 | -6.5 | -4.1 | -3.3 | -1.9 |
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 42.1 | 44.7 | 41.6 | 42.0 | 41.0 |
Inflation Rate (%) | 0.1 | 3.2 | 17.2 | 9.7 | 3.5 |
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 8.1 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 6.8 |
Current Account (billions USD) | 0.90 | -1.67 | -2.66 | -1.48 | -1.08 |
Current Account (in % of GDP) | 2.6 | -4.2 | -6.3 | -3.1 | -2.2 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , Latest available data
Note: (e) Estimated Data
The agricultural sector contributes 4.1% of GDP and employs 7% of the active population (World Bank, latest data available). It is dominated by cattle breeding and dairy farming, in addition to the production of grain cereals (barley, wheat, rye and oats), sugar beets, potatoes and vegetables. Fishing and forestry are also important components of the primary sector. Apart from timber, which is largely exported, Latvia has almost no natural resources. Almost 30% of Latvia’s territory is destined for agricultural use. Since the early 90s, the structure of land management changed significantly, with the liquidation of collective farms in favour of household farms and – to a greater extent - of private farms, which currently dominate the country’s rural sector. At the end of 2021, there were 62.3 thousand agricultural holdings (-14.7% y-o-y), with an average size of 44.3 ha. In 2021, the harvested production of grain accounted for 3 million tonnes, which was 14.4% less than one year earlier (CBS - latest data available).
The industrial sector contributes 19.9% of the GDP and employs almost one-fourth of the active workforce (21%). The construction, metallurgy, industrial food-processing, and mechanical engineering sectors are booming. Latvia is well-known as an important producer of railway equipment, radios, refrigerators, medicines, timber and steel by-products. The manufacturing sector is estimated to account for 12% of the total GDP. Data published by the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (CSB) show that in 2022 industrial production output increased by 0.8% year-on-year. Output in manufacturing rose by 2.6 %, mining and quarrying dropped by 0.7 %, and electricity and gas supply fell by 11.5%. In fact, the country has to import all its energy products, mainly from Russia, and has been trying to diversify its sources following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the resulting sanctions imposed by the EU.
The Latvian economy is driven by the services sector which contributes 63.7% of GDP and employs 69% of the active population. Thanks to its attractive fiscal regulation, Latvia has developed a large financial services sector. Transportation and ICT are also important activities for the country’s economy (with more than 6,900 companies operating in the latter sector and a 6% contribution to GDP). Transportation, in particular, contributes around 7.3% of GDP and employs more than 8% of the workforce (official governmental figures). The banking sector comprises 16 banks, including 12 credit institutions registered in Latvia, and four branches of European institutions (European Banking Federation). Finally, in 2022 the number of foreign and resident visitors in Latvia reached 2.2 million, which is 66.2% more than the previous year, but still 23.9% lower than before the pandemic.
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
---|---|---|---|
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 7.3 | 23.7 | 69.0 |
Value Added (in % of GDP) | 4.1 | 19.9 | 63.7 |
Value Added (Annual % Change) | -11.7 | 1.9 | 5.6 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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Monetary Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Euro (EUR) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.02 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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The Latvian market is open and competitive, with foreign trade representing 130% of GDP (World Bank, latest data available). According to the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, in 2022 exports were comprised mostly of wood, wood products and charcoal; mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; electrical machinery and equipment. Imports were led by mineral fuels, mineral oils and products of their distillation; electrical machinery and equipment; machinery and mechanical appliances.
With its 530 km-long Baltic coastlines on the west, Latvia is bordered by Belarus and Russia to the east, Estonia to the north and Lithuania to the south. This geographical position allows the country to function as a bridge between the two major economic areas of the EU and the CIS. At the same time, it also makes the country vulnerable to the external context, as shown during the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the following sanctions towards the Russian Federation. As a result, the volume of trade with Russia now accounts for less than 10% of the total while the EU has the lion's share with nearly 45.3% of total exports and an even larger share of imports. In the meantime, the country is also seeking new opportunities beyond Europe, with China and several countries in Central Asia. For 2022, the main partner countries were Sweden (EUR 956.5 million, 4.5%), Lithuania (EUR 933 million, 4.3%) and Germany (EUR 893.4 million, 4.2%); whereas imports came chiefly from Lithuania, Estonia, Germany, Poland, and the Russian Federation (their cumulated share comprised 60.3% of total imports).
The country has a structural trade deficit (notably due to its energy imports), which stood at 3.4% of GDP in 2021 (World Bank). In the same year, Latvia exported USD 20.8 billion worth of goods, importing USD 24.4 billion (+28.5% and +33.1% year-on-year, respectively). Trade in services recorded a surplus, with exports standing at USD 5.7 billion (+14.2% y-o-y) against USD 3.6 billion in imports (+23.2%). Preliminary figures from the National Statistical Office show that in 2022 Latvia exported EUR 21.27 billion worth of goods, importing EUR 26.5 billion (+29.3% and 35.8%). Both are the highest exports and imports value yet recorded, which can be explained by the rise in prices.
Foreign Trade Indicators | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imports of Goods (million USD) | 17,033 | 19,681 | 18,959 | 18,363 | 24,447 |
Exports of Goods (million USD) | 14,126 | 16,166 | 15,705 | 16,201 | 20,823 |
Imports of Services (million USD) | 2,959 | 3,550 | 3,527 | 2,940 | 3,622 |
Exports of Services (million USD) | 5,557 | 6,246 | 6,211 | 4,989 | 5,697 |
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | -0.3 | 15.3 |
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | 6.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 | -0.3 | 5.9 |
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 62.2 | 62.1 | 60.5 | 58.9 | 66.9 |
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 61.6 | 61.5 | 59.8 | 59.9 | 63.5 |
Trade Balance (million USD) | -2,770 | -2,944 | -2,952 | -1,766 | -3,288 |
Trade Balance (Including Service) (million USD) | -193 | -220 | -225 | 341 | -1,376 |
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) | 123.8 | 123.6 | 120.3 | 118.8 | 130.4 |
Source: WTO – World Trade Organisation ; World Bank , Latest Available Data
Main Customers (% of Exports) |
2022 |
---|---|
Lithuania | 18.2% |
Estonia | 11.8% |
Germany | 6.7% |
Russia | 5.6% |
Sweden | 5.6% |
See More Countries | 52.1% |
Main Suppliers (% of Imports) |
2022 |
---|---|
Lithuania | 24.4% |
Estonia | 10.1% |
Germany | 9.6% |
Poland | 9.4% |
Russia | 6.9% |
See More Countries | 39.6% |
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
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Source: United Nations Statistics Division, Latest Available Data
The executive branch of the government is directly or indirectly dependent on the support of the parliament, often expressed through a vote of confidence. Legislative power is vested in both the government and the parliament. The government does not have the power to dissolve the parliament. The people of Latvia enjoy considerable political rights.
The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
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Latest Update: September 2023