Kazakhstan: Economic and Political Overview

Economic Indicators

Kazakhstan's economic growth is largely based on gas and oil revenues, accounting for around 35% of GDP and 75% of exports. After reaching 5.1% in 2023, Kazakhstan’s economic growth remained strong in 2024, though it slowed to 3.9% from 5.1% in 2023, largely due to flat oil production partly compensated by a broad-based non-oil growth, according to the IMF. Growth is projected to reach 5% in 2025, driven by the expansion of the Tengiz oil field and continued strong public spending. However, without accelerated reform implementation, medium-term growth is expected to remain at its estimated potential of 3-3.5%. External risks include a slowdown in major economies due to supply disruptions or renewed inflation, intensified regional conflicts, secondary sanctions, and higher commodity price volatility or oil pipeline disruptions.

In December 2024, Kazakhstan's Senate approved amendments to the 2024 budget, raising the deficit from 2.6% to 2.7% of GDP. Planned revenues were revised to KZT 14.1 trillion, down 12% or KZT 2 trillion from the original estimate, while expenditures increased by 0.4% to KZT 24 trillion. The budget deficit rose from KZT 3.5 trillion to KZT 3.6 trillion. Revenue was lowered due to reduced oil production, a significant increase in VAT refunds for 2023 amounting to KZT 594 billion, and unstable external factors, such as global commodity price volatility and logistics challenges faced by major companies. The 2025 draft budget envisages continued subdued tax revenues, higher spending, and National Fund transfers amounting to about 3.9% of GDP. Although increasing (to 24.8% in 2024), Kazakhstan's public debt remains low, with significant financial assets accumulated in the National Fund (about 23% of GDP at the end of 2023). The government plans to meet the majority of its financing needs through 2026 in the domestic market, supported by ample banking sector liquidity, relatively weak loan demand, and high return on equity (IMF). The National Bank of Kazakhstan has maintained a cautious monetary policy amid ongoing inflation pressures from higher energy tariffs and fiscal underperformance. Inflation was estimated at 8.2% in 2024, still above the 5% target, as disinflation slowed due to rising domestic energy tariffs and an expansionary fiscal policy.

The unemployment rate stood at around 4.6% in Q4/2024. To improve living standards, the government implemented a 21.4% nominal increase in the minimum wage, effectively doubling it since 2021 (+70% rise in real terms). According to the World Bank, poverty, estimated at 7.9% (at USD 6.85/day) in 2024, is expected to decrease to 6.7% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026 as growth continues and inflation subsides.

Main Sectors of Industry

Kazakhstan benefits from multiple natural resources, including major deposits of oil, natural gas, coal, iron ore, manganese, chromium ore, nickel, cobalt, copper, lead, zinc, bauxite or uranium. Kazakhstan has a vast agricultural area, ranking 13th in the world, consisting of both arable land and pastures. The sector experienced a sharp decline following the collapse of the Soviet Union but has recovered over the past two decades. Agriculture now contributes 3.9% of GDP and employs 12.1% of the working population, according to the latest World Bank data. While the country practices extensive agriculture, ageing infrastructure hampers its development. More than half of its agricultural production comes from vegetable crops, including cereals such as wheat, oilseeds, and cucurbits. Kazakhstan is among the world's leading wheat producers, while livestock and dairy industries also play a significant role. The country is nearly self-sufficient in agri-food production. According to government figures, agricultural output in 2024 reached KZT 8.282 trillion, marking a 13.7% increase from the previous year. Livestock production grew by 3.6% to KZT 3.269 trillion, while crop production saw a significant rise of 21.1%, reaching KZT 4.955 trillion.

The Kazakh industry sector - accounting for 32.3% of GDP and employing 21.6% of the working population - comprises diverse subsectors, including oil and gas extraction, mining, metallurgy, chemicals, machinery manufacturing, and agriculture. Kazakhstan is renowned for its significant reserves of oil, natural gas, and minerals, making extraction and processing key industries. The country's metallurgical sector specializes in the production of steel, while chemical industries focus on petrochemicals and fertilizers. Machinery manufacturing includes a wide range of products, from agricultural machinery to industrial equipment. In 2024, Kazakhstan's industrial production reached KZT 50.125 trillion, marking a 2.8% increase from the previous year, according to the National Statistics Bureau. The extractive sector saw a slight decline of 0.2%, totalling KZT 22.182 trillion and accounting for 44.3% of overall production. The manufacturing sector grew by 5.9% to KZT 24.503 trillion, making up 48.9% of the total. The supply of electricity, gas, steam, hot water, and air conditioning increased by 4.5% to KZT 2.972 trillion. However, the water supply and waste management sector experienced a slight decline of 0.3%, totalling KZT 468.6 billion.

The tertiary sector is the main sector in Kazakhstan and is growing steadily. It accounts for 56.3% of GDP and employs 66.3% of the working population. The financial sector, transport and technology are the main services produced in the country. The tourism sector is also pivotal: in 2024, Kazakhstan welcomed 11.5 million foreign tourists, nearly doubling the number from 2023. Accommodation revenues also saw a significant increase of 27%, reaching KZT 224 billion (USD 432.8 million). The banking sector is buoyant, with banks reporting strong profitability (the average return on average equity in regulatory accounts was 34% in the first nine months of 2024 - Firch Ratings). Finally, retail trade grew by 9.8% in 2024, reaching KZT 22.445 trillion (approximately USD 42.51 billion). Retail sales of goods by commercial enterprises rose by 3.9%, while food products accounted for 32.6% of total retail trade, according to the Bureau of National Statistics.

 

Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector	Agriculture	Industry	Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment)	12.1	21.6	66.3
Value Added (in % of GDP)	3.9	32.3	56.3
Value Added (Annual % Change)	-7.4	8.1	5.2

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

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Monetary Indicators	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Kazakhstan Tenge (KZT) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR	9.63	9.45	10.16	10.78	10.50

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.

Score:

71,1/100

World Rank:

34

Regional Rank:

8

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 

Business environment ranking

Definition

Definition:

The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.

Score:

5.53/10

World Rank:

63/82

Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2021-2025

 

Foreign Trade in Figures

Kazakhstan is open to international trade, which represents 62% of its GDP (World Bank, latest data available). The country has an export-oriented economy that is highly dependent on shipments of oil and related products. In January–December 2023, Kazakhstan's exports were dominated by crude oil and crude oil products derived from bituminous minerals (53.8%), followed by radioactive chemical elements and isotopes (4.4%), refined copper and raw copper alloys (4.1%), copper ores and concentrates (3.9%), ferroalloys (3%), and natural gas in a gaseous state (2.6%). On the import side, the largest share consisted of cars (5%), telephone sets (3%), vehicle bodies and cabins (2.6%), medicinal products (2.3%), and motor vehicle parts and accessories (1.9% - data Kazakh Bureau of National Statistics).

In the same period, Kazakhstan's primary export partner countries included Italy (18.9%), China (18.7%), Russia (12.4%), the Netherlands (5.2%), Turkey (5%), and the Republic of Korea (4.8%); whereas imports came chiefly from China (27.4%), Russia (26.5%), Germany (5.2%), the U.S. (4.2%), the Republic of Korea (3.6%), and Turkey (3.3%). The country has been a WTO member since 2015 and has trade agreements with many countries in its region. It is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (Russia, Belarus, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan), and the Common Economic Zone (Belarus and Russia). The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) was signed in 2015 between the country and the European Union, and a revised version entered into force in March 2020.

The country has been recording trade surpluses since 1998 mainly due to the rise in shipments of oil and other commodities. As oil and gas are among Kazakhstan's main exports, the country's trade balance is affected by global commodity prices. The country has been recording trade surpluses since 1998 mainly due to the rise in shipments of oil and other commodities. As oil and gas are among Kazakhstan's main exports, the country's trade balance is affected by global commodity prices. In 2023, Kazakhstan exported goods worth USD 78.5 billion against USD 60.6 billion in imports (-7.1% and +19% y-o-y, respectively). Concerning services, exports stood at USD 10.7 billion, lower than imports (USD 13 billion). According to the World Bank, the country’s trade balance in goods and services was positive by 7% of its GDP in 2023, down from 14.8% one year earlier. Preliminary figures from the Bureau of National Statistics show that Kazakhstan's foreign trade turnover in January–December 2024 totalled USD 141.4 billion, marking a 1.3% increase compared to the same period in 2023 in nominal terms. Exports amounted to USD 81.6 billion, reflecting a 3.1% increase in nominal terms, while imports totalled USD 59.7 billion, showing a 1% decrease in nominal terms.

Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries

Ministry of Finance
Ministry of Economy
Ministry for Industry and Construction
Ministry of Agriculture
Ministry of Justice

Statistical Office

Bureau of National Statistics

Central Bank

National Bank of Kazakhstan

Stock Exchange

Kazakhstan Stock Exchange (Kaze)

Search Engines

Site.kz

Economic Portals

The Astana Times
Portal on Mining Sector

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