Ivory Coast: Economic and Political Overview

Economic Indicators

Over the past decade, Côte d’Ivoire has steadily transformed its economy, achieving one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s fastest growth rates. As the world’s top cocoa producer, it maintained strong GDP growth, averaging 8.2% from 2012 to 2019, and effectively managed the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite global challenges and tighter financial conditions, growth remained strong at 6.2% in 2023 and rose to 6.5% in 2024, driven by robust public and private investment and private consumption. Growth is expected to average 6.5% in 2025-2026, driven by sound policies, a growing extractive sector, and investment in infrastructure and agriculture. The "Calao" oil field could further enhance prospects, attract investors, and improve financing conditions.

Fiscal data for the first ten months of 2024 indicates that consolidation remained on track, with revenues, including grants, rising by 10.2% year-on-year, while expenditure grew by 5.9%. Therefore, the central government deficit for the year aligned with the 4% of GDP target, driven by ongoing tax reforms and administration measures. Controlled spending and under-execution of capital expenditure kept expenditure growth low. Fitch expects the deficit to reach 3% of GDP in 2025 and remain stable in the following years. Government debt remained stable at 58% in 2024 and is projected to decline to 52.7% by 2026. WAEMU fiscal convergence criteria remain suspended, with new ones under development. Although WAEMU's inflation has declined from its 2022 peak, it remained above target at 3.5% in 2024. Regional inflation is expected to reach its target by 2025, while reserves should gradually increase, driven by resumed bond issuances, recovering exports, and Euro Area monetary easing.

Extreme poverty fell to 10.3% in 2024, down 0.4 percentage points from 2023, marking a reversal after three years of increase. Higher cocoa farmgate prices boosted agricultural incomes, benefiting a large share of the workforce, particularly rural workers and the poor. Lower food inflation and growth in industry and services also contributed to poverty reduction (World Bank). The unemployment rate was estimated by the World Bank at 2.3% in 2023 (latest data available); however, around 40% of the workforce is employed in the informal sector. Finally, it has to be noted that the country’s GDP per capita (PPP) is still very low, estimated at USD 7,648 in 2024 by the IMF.

Foreign Trade in Figures

The Ivory Coast is the hub of commercial activities in West Africa. The share of foreign trade in the country's GDP is 53% (World Bank, latest available data). Exports are mainly composed of primary products, including industrial and export-oriented agricultural goods (37.8% of total exports) and extractive products (17.2%), along with manufactured goods (22.3%) and semi-processed products (19.6%). Specifically, exports are dominated by cocoa (both processed and unprocessed, accounting for 31.6% of total sales), petroleum products and crude oil (14.8%), gold (12.8%), natural rubber (11.2%), and cashew nuts (6.8%). The largest category of imports consists of intermediate goods (31.5% of total imports), followed by non-food consumer goods (26.5%), capital goods (20%), and food products (17.2%). Specifically, the main imported products are petroleum products and crude oil (25.5%), machinery (10.8%), transport equipment (9.5%), and cereals (5.3% - data French Ministry of Economy for 2023).

The Ivory Coast is a member of the UEMOA (West African Economic and Monetary Union), which enforces a Common External Tariff (CET). It also belongs to the Free Trade Zone. In 2008, the Ivory Coast signed a stepping stone economic partnership agreement (EPA) with the European Union (EU). This agreement entered into provisional application on 3 September 2016 and essentially aims at maintaining the preferential trade system that exists between the EU and the Ivory Coast (Nigeria is the only country in the region that has is yet to sign the EPA, which is why the agreement is not yet applied). It will be replaced by the regional EU-West Africa EPA. Ivory Coast is also a signatory to the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. Data from the French Ministry of Economy show that, after losing the top spot in 2022, the Netherlands regained its position as Ivory Coast's largest export partner in 2023, with its share rising significantly to 11.5% (up from 8.7% in 2022). Switzerland ranked second, also seeing an increase in its share to 10.6% (from 8.1% in 2022). Mali followed with a share of 8.7%, while Malaysia and Vietnam each hold 5%. China remained Ivory Coast's largest supplier (since 2016), with a 14.8% market share in 2023, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous year. Nigeria followed with a 14% share (up from 12.1% in 2022). France, India, and the United States completed the top five, with respective shares of 5.6%, 5.2%, and 3.9%.

According to the WTO, Colombia exported USD 20.2 billion worth of goods while it imported USD 18.8 billion in 2023 (+23.3% and +18.5% y-o-y, respectively). The increase in exports was mainly driven by higher sales of processed cocoa, gold, and cashew nuts. Including services, the World Bank estimated the trade deficit at 4.8% of GDP (from 7.6% one year earlier). Preliminary government figures show that, in the last quarter of 2024, the Customs Directorate achieved 96.5% of its annual target, with customs revenue amounting to XOF 2,728.67 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 9.56% compared to the previous year. For 2025, the target set is XOF 3,325 billion.

Sources of General Economic Information

Ministries

Ministry of Economy and Finance (in French)

Statistical Office

Côte d'Ivoire National Institute of Statistics

Central Bank

Central Bank of West African States

Stock Exchange

BRVM

Economic Portals

Ivory Cost Economic Portal

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