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Iran's economy is characterized by its reliance on hydrocarbon resources, a vibrant agricultural sector, and a diverse service industry. Additionally, the manufacturing and financial services sectors notably feature significant state involvement. External shocks, such as sanctions and commodity price fluctuations, led to a decade-long stagnation that concluded in 2019/20. However, in recent years, Iran's economy has begun to recover, buoyed by a resurgence in services after the pandemic, heightened activity in the oil sector, and adaptive policy measures. Economic resilience has been demonstrated in response to sanctions, including exchange rate adjustments that enhanced the competitiveness of domestically produced goods in international markets. According to IMF projections, Iran’s GDP grew 5.4% in 2023 thanks to a higher-than-expected increase in the country’s oil production. For 2024 and 2025, the IMF forecasts growth at 2.5% and 2%, respectively.
The decline in revenues as a result of US sanctions has prompted the government of Iran to satisfy its financing needs through extensive debt issuance and the sale of assets on the stock market. Elevated oil prices, driven by a global demand rebound and the Ukraine conflict, have boosted oil export revenues. However, the surge in commodity prices, particularly for food items, has substantially raised the import bill. This escalation added strain to government finances, especially considering that direct food price subsidies amounted to 5% of GDP even before the recent price surge. The current account balance is expected to sustain a surplus in the forecast period, bolstered by increased oil prices and non-oil exports. However, the surplus may be constrained by a more expensive import bill resulting from higher import prices. Despite the gradual rise in oil exports positively impacting the fiscal balance, the budget deficit is anticipated to persist above pre-sanctions levels, according to the World Bank. Meanwhile, public debt declined to 30.6% of GDP in 2023 (from 34.1% one year earlier) and is expected to follow a downward trend. Inflation stood above 45% in 2023 but should gradually decline amid lower food prices, resulting in a slight acceleration in household consumption.
Iran's unemployment rate reached 9.4% in 2023. The IMF estimates that the rate will remain relatively stable in 2024 (9.6%) and in 2025 (9.8%). The number of people no longer actively seeking work is increasing. Years of recession and high inflation have severely challenged household livelihoods and halted the poverty reduction trend. According to official figures released by the Interior Ministry, around 60% of Iranians live below the relative poverty line. According to a report published by ILNA in February 2023, one-third of the country’s population is now living in extreme poverty, after the number almost doubled in one year from 2020 to 2021. The country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 18,261 in 2022 by the World Bank.
Main Indicators | 2022 | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
GDP (billions USD) | 347.45 | 403.53 | 464.18 | 486.25 | 509.43 |
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 3.8 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 2.7 |
GDP per Capita (USD) | 4,055 | 4,663 | 5,310 | 5,508 | 5,713 |
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 35.8 | 28.3 | 25.5 | 25.7 | 24.9 |
Inflation Rate (%) | 45.8 | 41.5 | 37.5 | 32.5 | 27.5 |
Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 9.0 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 8.6 |
Current Account (billions USD) | 14.21 | 17.76 | 16.71 | 16.53 | 16.30 |
Current Account (in % of GDP) | 4.1 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.2 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database , Latest available data
Note: (e) Estimated Data
Iran has a labor force of 28.6 million out of its 87.9 million population. Agriculture contributes 12.8% of the GDP, employing 15% of the active population (World Bank, latest data available). Only 9.7% of the land is arable and despite its importance to the economy and food security, the sector faces challenges such as water scarcity and limited access to modern technologies, impacting productivity and efficiency. The main crops are pistachios (world's largest producer), wheat, rice, oranges, tea, and cotton. In 2023, Iran's wheat production surged by 6%, elevating the Islamic Republic to the 14th position among global wheat producers, as per the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), with Iranian farmers achieving a production of 14 million tons of wheat during the 2023 crop year.
The industrial sector employs 34% of the workforce and contributes 39.9% of the GDP (World Bank). Iran's industry is spearheaded by the hydrocarbon industry as the country is rich in mineral resources, mainly oil (3rd largest proved crude oil reserves in the world) and gas (2nd place in reserves in the world), copper, lead, zinc, etc. In 2023, Iran's daily oil production reached 2.99 million barrels, marking an increase of 440,000 barrels compared to 2022, as reported by the International Energy Agency, while exports reached a five-year high. The textile industry is the second most important after the oil sector. Other major industries include sugar refining, food-processing, petrochemicals, cement, and construction. Traditional handicrafts, such as carpet weaving and ceramics manufacturing, silk, and jewelry are also vital to the economy. The manufacturing sector as a whole is estimated to account for one-fifth of GDP.
The services sector contributes to 45% of the GDP and employs 51% of the workforce (World Bank). The expansion of urban areas has fostered the growth of the service sector. Significant service industries encompass public services, which encompass education, commerce, personal services, professional services, and tourism, which is growing despite U.S. sanctions: in 2023, 5.4 million foreign tourists visited Iran (+52% year-on-year).
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
---|---|---|---|
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 16.3 | 34.4 | 49.4 |
Value Added (in % of GDP) | 12.5 | 40.2 | 46.9 |
Value Added (Annual % Change) | 1.4 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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Monetary Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Iran Rial (IRR) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR | 869.81 | 963.60 | 1,204.21 | 1,186.88 | 4,382.32 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
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Iran is relatively open to foreign trade, which accounts for around 52% of its GDP (World Bank, latest data available). The country has an observer status at the World Trade Organization (WTO) since 2005 and is not a member of any regional trade blocs. Exports are spearheaded by crude oil and petroleum products (reaching a five-year high in 2023), followed by ethylene polymers and acyclic alcohols. On the other hand, imports are led by telephones (8.4%), maize or corn (6.4%), wheat and meslin (4.7%), soya beans, whether or not broken (2.7%), sunflower-seed, and safflower or cotton-seed oil (2.6% - data Comtrade).
In 2022, Iran’s main export partners were China (29.8%), Iraq (13.3%), Türkiye (9.0%), the United Arab Emirates (7.3%), and Afghanistan (2.7%), whereas imports came chiefly from the United Arab Emirates (31.2%), China (24.1%), Türkiye (10.0%), Germany (3.6%), and Russia (3.1% - data Comtrade). The government is aiming to diversify the country's exports, given that diversification of non-oil exports would lower the economy’s vulnerability.
The country generally has a positive trade balance thanks to oil exports; however, its scope is largely dependent on global oil prices. According to figures from WTO, in 2022, Iran exported USD 77.2 billion worth of goods against USD 55.4 billion in imports (+7.7% and +13.2% y-o-y, respectively). Concerning services, exports stood at USD 6.5 billion and imports at USD 11.9 billion. In the same year, the trade balance was estimated to be positive by 2% of GDP, from 1.3% one year earlier (World Bank).
Foreign Trade Indicators | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Imports of Goods (million USD) | 41,828 | 38,757 | 49,086 | 58,552 | 65,276 |
Exports of Goods (million USD) | 65,718 | 46,916 | 71,646 | 97,853 | 91,188 |
Imports of Services (million USD) | 15,006 | 7,544 | 11,486 | 16,150 | 0 |
Exports of Services (million USD) | 10,953 | 4,818 | 5,824 | 9,266 | 0 |
Imports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | -32.5 | -29.7 | 24.1 | 9.2 | n/a |
Exports of Goods and Services (Annual % Change) | -17.3 | -12.8 | 5.2 | 7.3 | n/a |
Imports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 27.3 | 24.4 | 21.5 | 17.9 | n/a |
Exports of Goods and Services (in % of GDP) | 23.5 | 19.4 | 22.8 | 19.8 | n/a |
Foreign Trade (in % of GDP) | 50.8 | 43.8 | 44.4 | 37.7 | n/a |
Source: WTO – World Trade Organisation ; World Bank , Latest Available Data
Main Customers (% of Exports) |
2021 |
---|---|
China | 29.8% |
Iraq | 13.3% |
Türkiye | 9.0% |
United Arab Emirates | 7.3% |
Afghanistan | 2.7% |
See More Countries | 37.9% |
Main Suppliers (% of Imports) |
2021 |
---|---|
United Arab Emirates | 31.2% |
China | 24.1% |
Türkiye | 10.0% |
Germany | 3.6% |
Russia | 3.1% |
See More Countries | 28.0% |
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
Source: Comtrade, Latest Available Data
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The main political groups are:
- Coalition Council of Islamic Revolution Forces (SHANA): conservative coalition of parties, right-wing
- Unity Council
- Voice of the Nation
- People's Alliance of Islamic Revolution
- Combatant Clergy Association
The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
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Latest Update: April 2024