Economic Outline

flag Guinea Guinea: Economic Outline

Economic Indicators

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Guinea has been recording sustained growth in recent years, driven by mining (mainly bauxite), greater investments in infrastructures as well as good agricultural performances. The country’s economy kept growing even during the COVID-19 pandemic (+4.9% of GDP in 2020). After a year of socio-political unrest, which was triggered by a coup d'état in September 2021, the situation has stabilized. Although the non-mining sector has been weakened by various shocks, such as the pandemic, political instability, and global food and fuel price shocks leading to food insecurity, the economy's overall growth is still strong due to robust mining production: according to the IMF, the country’s GDP grew an estimated 4.6% in 2022. Prospects for 2023 see a growth rate of 5.1%, followed by 5.5% in 2024, driven by increased production in the mining sector, particularly gold, which accounts for 50% of exports, and bauxite (44%).

Concerning public finances, the budget deficit, apart from a slight peak in 2020 (3.1% of GDP), is at a very low level (1.3% in 2022, including grants). The IMF expects it to reach 2.3% of GDP in 2023 due, in particular, to the drop in revenue from extractive activities linked to less favourable gold and bauxite prices, and also to high security and infrastructure expenditure. Public debt – at 39% of GDP in 2022 - is mainly external (56% of the total), 70% of which is held by China, with the balance held by multilateral organizations. Guinea remains at moderate risk of debt distress, with some space to absorb shocks but limited space for new borrowing, so the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to decrease slightly thanks to an acceleration in economic growth (to 37.2% in 2023). Despite significant international price pressures, inflation hovered around 12% for most of 2021 and 2022, thanks to the positive effects of the appreciation of the Guinean franc. For 2023, the IMF forecasts an inflation rate of 12.2% of GDP, with a marginal decrease the following year (to 10.3%). The main priorities identified by the IMF are to strengthen domestic revenue mobilization, to repay arrears to support a more vibrant private sector and help improve credit intermediation, and to increase investments in infrastructure and social sectors. To tackle pressing balance-of-payments requirements and alleviate the effects of the food crisis, the government requested the disbursement of SDR 53.55 million through the Food Shock Window (FSW) of the Rapid Credit Facility (equal to 25% of the country’s quota). The approach will include the distribution of food in-kind, in cooperation with the World Food Program, the purchase of fertilizer, and the enhancement of cash transfer initiatives for households that are vulnerable (IMF).

Multiple social inequalities are recorded in Guinea, which is classified as a low-income country by the World Bank (with a GDP per capita of only USD 2,993 PPP in 2022 - IMF). It is estimated that the informal economy accounts for around half of the GDP and 70% of employment. According to figures from the World Bank, the unemployment rate stood at 5.8% in 2021 (latest data available), with a poverty rate of 43.7%.

 
Main Indicators 20222023 (E)2024 (E)2025 (E)2026 (E)
GDP (billions USD) 20.3023.2125.3327.3329.34
GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) 4.35.95.65.65.4
GDP per Capita (USD) 1,3841,5431,6431,7291,811
General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) 33.131.631.531.629.9
Inflation Rate (%) n/a8.37.97.77.5
Current Account (billions USD) -1.67-2.06-2.22-2.59-2.30
Current Account (in % of GDP) -8.2-8.9-8.8-9.5-7.8

Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - October 2021.

Note: (e) Estimated Data


 
Monetary Indicators 20142015201820192020
Guinea Franc (GNF) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR 229.06213.53265.550.25243.10

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

Main Sectors of Industry

 
Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector Agriculture Industry Services
Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) 59.2 7.0 33.8
Value Added (in % of GDP) 27.3 28.8 35.3
Value Added (Annual % Change) 4.7 4.7 4.7

Source: World Bank - Latest available data.

 

The Active Population in Figures

201820192020
Labour Force 4,290,4064,433,6724,456,144

Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database

 
201720182019
Total activity rate 63.29%63.11%62.96%
Men activity rate 61.49%61.05%60.66%
Women activity rate 64.87%64.93%65.01%

Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database

 

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Indicator of Economic Freedom

Definition:

The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.

Score:
56,5/100
World Rank:
123
Regional Rank:
20

Economic freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Index of Economic Freedom, Heritage Foundation

 
 

Country Risk

See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.

 

Indicator of Political Freedom

Definition:

The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.

Ranking:
Partly Free
Political Freedom:
5/7

Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House

 

Indicator of Freedom of the Press

Definition:

The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).

World Rank:
109/180

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Sources of General Economic Information

Useful Resources
Ministry of Economy and Finance
Ministry of Mines
Ministry of Agriculture
Central Bank of Guinea
 
 

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Latest Update: December 2023