Comoros: Economic Outline
Comoros has been stuck in a low-growth trap for over 40 years, with growth averaging about 2.6% in 1980–2022 (World Bank). The Comorian economy was already weakened by political uncertainty and the passage of Cyclone Kenneth when it was hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, with GDP contracting by 0.3% in 2020. After a rebound in 2021 (+2.2%), the country’s economy continued expanding in 2022 (+2.6%). The IMF estimated growth at 3% in 2023, while the forecast for medium-term growth, standing at approximately 4.5%, depends on the effective implementation of robust macroeconomic policies and structural reforms.
Strong tax revenues and slower-than-expected public investment execution contributed to the over-performance of the domestic primary balance in 2023, with health and education spending accounting for approximately 33% of transfers in the 2023 budget. In 2024, the proposed domestic primary balance target is -1.4% of GDP (QPC). This target factors in: (i) expected revenue gains of approximately 6.5% from revenue administration reforms and the removal of tax exemptions on construction materials; (ii) efforts to stabilize the wage-to-GDP ratio, with nominal wages increasing by 3.4% due to higher pension contribution rates; (iii) the phasing out of one-time expenses linked to the 2024 presidential elections and the 2023 African Union presidency; and (iv) robust execution of public investment, driven by the goal to finish constructing the El Maarouf Hospital in 2024. The debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at 33.3% in 2023 (from 27.9% one year earlier), and is expected to increase over the forecast horizon (to 38.2% by 2025 – IMF). The revised average inflation for 2023 stood at 9.2%, with expectations for it to gradually converge to around 2% over the medium term (IMF). To tackle economic fragility, the government’s top priority is to raise fiscal revenue to support investment in human and physical capital and enhance debt sustainability. The authorities also aim to strengthen the quality of spending, public financial management, State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) oversight, and the financial sector. Some of Comoros' biggest challenges include weak institutional capacities, a lack of basic infrastructure, heavy dependence on external aid, high exposure to threats related to the over-exploitation of natural resources (deforestation, land degradation, groundwater pollution, and coastal erosion), corruption, and an inefficient judicial system that is vulnerable to political interference. Furthermore, it has to be noted that – due to the country’s geography - the agriculture and biodiversity sectors are the most vulnerable to climate change.
With 39.8% of the population living below the poverty line, Comoros is one of the poorest countries in the world. The unemployment rate stood at around 5.7% in 2023 (World Bank), although general under-employment is the norm, with a large part of the population working in the primary sector. The country’s GDP per capita (PPP) was estimated at USD 3,834 by the World Bank in 2022.
| Main Indicators | 2022 | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (billions USD) | 1.23 | 1.34 | 1.42 | 1.52 | 1.62 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 2.6 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 1,282 | 1,353 | 1,384 | 1,421 | 1,461 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 28.1 | 33.2 | 35.5 | 36.3 | 36.5 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 12.4 | 8.5 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -0.01 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.08 | -0.09 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -0.5 | -6.0 | -5.8 | -5.3 | -5.5 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database - October 2021.
Note: (e) Estimated Data
| Monetary Indicators | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comoro Franc (KMF) - Average Annual Exchange Rate For 1 MUR | 12.51 | 12.66 | 12.28 | 12.38 | 10.95 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 35.0 | 20.2 | 44.9 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 36.4 | 9.1 | 50.2 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | 2.2 | 0.8 | 2.5 |
Source: World Bank - Latest available data.
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Labour Force | 228,821 | 235,265 | 234,861 |
Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database
| 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total activity rate | 46.39% | 46.47% | 46.56% |
| Men activity rate | 57.63% | 57.53% | 57.43% |
| Women activity rate | 34.97% | 35.24% | 35.53% |
Source: International Labour Organization, ILOSTAT database
The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
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