Canada: Economic and Political Overview
In this page: Economic Outline | Political Outline
Following the unprecedented global crisis prompted by the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic - which led to the largest economic contraction since 1945 - the Canadian economy rebounded in 2021 and continued growing thereafter. GDP growth picked up in the first half of 2024 after a sluggish second half of 2023. Private consumption remained strong due to population growth but is weak on a per capita basis. Business investment rebounded, while housing investment continued to decline since early 2022. Overall, real GDP growth was estimated at 1.3% in 2024, supported by the normalization of monetary policy, some easing of fiscal policy, continued immigration (albeit slowing), and the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline. Real GDP growth is projected to strengthen in 2025 (+2% as per the IMF), driven by strong external demand supporting exports and lower policy rates fostering investment. However, private consumption growth is expected to slow due to lower population growth and a weaker labour market, before recovering in 2026. Nevertheless, on February 1, the U.S. announced 25% tariffs on all imports from Canada, except for oil, which would face a 10% tariff. The implementation was paused for a 30-day negotiation period. If the tariffs are enforced, the economic impact would be significant.
Concerning public finances, lower revenues and new spending measures have led to larger deficits in the fiscal plan, including a significant CAD 22 billion downward revision for 2023-24, bringing the deficit to CAD 61.9 billion. The 2024-25 deficit has also worsened by CAD 8.5 billion, now standing at CAD 48.3 billion (Royal Bank of Canada). The federal government has introduced several spending measures in recent budgets, prioritizing housing affordability and social spending. In November 2024, two new fiscal incentives were announced: a temporary GST/HST rebate for qualifying goods and a CAD 250 tax rebate to be issued in spring 2025. While increased government spending is only partially offset by efficiency gains and higher capital gains taxes, the overall fiscal stance is expected to remain largely unchanged in 2025-26. The debt-to-GDP ratio was estimated at 106.1% in 2024 by the IMF, with a downward trend expected over the forecast horizon (to 101.2% by 2026). According to official governmental figures, on an annual average basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.4% in 2024, down from 3.9% in 2023. Excluding energy, the CPI rose 2.6%, compared with 4.5% the previous year. The IMF projects inflation to hover around 2% this year and in 2026.
The unemployment rate rose from 5% at the start of 2023 to 6.5% in September 2024 (Bank of Canada). This increase was mainly due to more unemployed individuals struggling to find work and a growing number of new entrants to the labour force without jobs. Layoffs, however, contributed little to the rise. Although Canadians enjoy a high per capita GDP (estimated at USD 64,566 in 2024 – IMF), 9.9% of the population lives in poverty (data 2022 Census of Population).
| Main Indicators | 2023 (E) | 2024 (E) | 2025 (E) | 2026 (E) | 2027 (E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (billions USD) | 2,142.47 | 2,214.80 | 2,330.31 | 2,445.95 | 2,559.32 |
| GDP (Constant Prices, Annual % Change) | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 53,607 | 53,834 | 55,890 | 58,264 | 60,561 |
| General Government Balance (in % of GDP) | -0.6 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -1.0 | -0.9 |
| General Government Gross Debt (in % of GDP) | 107.5 | 106.1 | 103.2 | 101.2 | 99.5 |
| Inflation Rate (%) | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (% of the Labour Force) | 5.4 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| Current Account (billions USD) | -15.54 | -21.16 | -29.36 | -40.40 | -49.95 |
| Current Account (in % of GDP) | -0.7 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -1.7 | -2.0 |
Source: IMF – World Economic Outlook Database, Latest data available.
Note : (E) Estimated data
The agricultural sector represents 1.8% of Canada's GDP and employs only 1% of the active population (World Bank, latest data available). However, the agricultural system and the food processing industry provide 1 in 8 jobs and account for over CAD 100 billion of the country’s GDP and more than CAD 60 billion in exports. Canada is one of the largest exporters of agricultural products in the world - particularly of wheat - and produces around 10% of the world's GMO harvests. Fishing is another important sector. Canada is also one of the leading producers of minerals, especially nickel, zinc and uranium. According to the latest figures from Agriculture Canada, for the 2024‑25 crop year, the production of Canada's main field crops is projected to experience a 1.8% year-over-year increase, which would be 2.4% above the previous five-year average. Farm cash receipts for Canadian farmers totalled CAD 70.6 billion for the first three quarters of 2024, down 3.0% (-CAD 2.2 billion) from the same period in 2023. Receipts for crops (-CAD 3.8 billion) and program payments (-CAD 51.2 million) fell, while receipts for livestock (CAD 1.7 billion) rose.
The industrial sector contributes 22.5% of the GDP and employs 19% of the labour force. Canada has six strong primary industry sectors: renewable energies (mainly wind, the country is a net exporter of energy); the forestry sector, hydrogen and fuel cells, mines, metals and minerals, fishing, oil and gas. The country is rich in gas and has the 4th largest reserves of oil in the world (being the 4th oil producer in 2024), whose production is concentrated in the western provinces, especially Alberta. According to data from the World Bank, manufacturing accounts for around 9% of the country’s GDP. The latest data from Statistics Canada show that, in 2023, the manufacturing sector grew for the third consecutive year, with total revenue up 1.7% year over year to CAD 935.6 billion. Revenue from goods manufactured accounted for 93.4% of total revenue, rising 1.3% to CAD 874.2 billion.
The service sector dominates the Canadian economy: it represents 69.6% of the country's GDP and employs over 80% of the active population (the largest employer being the retail sector - which employs about 12% of the country’s workforce alone - and the business-related services sector). The education and health sectors are also pivotal for the country’s economy. The most dynamic sectors in recent years have been telecommunications, tourism, internet and aerospace engineering. Tourism was estimated to account for 1.5% of GDP at the end of Q3/2024, providing nearly 700,000 jobs. Concerning the retail sector, in 2023, retail sales increased 2.2% to CAD 794.4 billion, driven by gains at motor vehicle and parts dealers. In volume terms, sales rose 2.3%.
| Breakdown of Economic Activity By Sector | Agriculture | Industry | Services |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment By Sector (in % of Total Employment) | 1.3 | 19.2 | 79.5 |
| Value Added (in % of GDP) | 1.8 | 22.5 | 69.6 |
| Value Added (Annual % Change) | -4.6 | -0.9 | 2.1 |
Source: World Bank, Latest data available.
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The Economic freedom index measure ten components of economic freedom, grouped into four broad categories or pillars of economic freedom: Rule of Law (property rights, freedom from corruption); Limited Government (fiscal freedom, government spending); Regulatory Efficiency (business freedom, labour freedom, monetary freedom); and Open Markets (trade freedom, investment freedom, financial freedom). Each of the freedoms within these four broad categories is individually scored on a scale of 0 to 100. A country’s overall economic freedom score is a simple average of its scores on the 10 individual freedoms.
The business rankings model measures the quality or attractiveness of the business environment in the 82 countries covered by The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Country Forecast reports. It examines ten separate criteria or categories, covering the political environment, the macroeconomic environment, market opportunities, policy towards free enterprise and competition, policy towards foreign investment, foreign trade and exchange controls, taxes, financing, the labour market and infrastructure.
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit - Business Environment Rankings 2020-2024
See the country risk analysis provided by Coface.
On January 6, 2025, Justin Trudeau declared his resignation from the post of Leader of the Liberal Party and the Prime Minister of Canada. His decision came on the heels of party dissent as well as dwindling public support. Trudeau will remain in office until the Liberal Party elects a new leader, with the leadership election scheduled for March 9, 2025. The Liberal Party is gearing up for a competition to determine who will succeed him with contenders such as former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney. The Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre has gained traction throughout the Liberal Party's crisis and is currently considered the front-runner for the position of Prime Minister reflecting the current trend of declining influence by left-leaning parties around the world.
On the external relations front, Donald Trump's election brings considerable uncertainty to U.S.-Canada relations. Given the closer ideological distance, it can be supposed that it will be somewhat less frictional should the Conservatives come back to power; while trade issues will continue to have frictions. Furthermore, relations with China and India changed significantly. An investigation is ongoing into allegations of election interference by China, and in mid-2024, Canada imposed tariffs on EVs, steel, and aluminium, also following the U.S. Lastly, government allegations that India was behind the assassination of a Sikh leader in British Columbia, which India has denied, have dented the bilateral relationship and could jeopardise efforts to deepen diplomatic and economic ties between the two countries.
- Liberal Party of Canada (LPC): centrist party, the oldest active federal political party in Canada
- Conservative Party of Canada (CPC): centre-right to right-wing; colloquially known as the 'Tories'
- New Democratic Party (NDP): centre-left, socialist
- Bloc Québécois: centre-left, social-democratic
- Green Party of Canada (GPC): centre-left, ecologist party.
New parties are expected to run in the 2025 elections, namely the Canadian Future Party (CFP - centrist) and the Centrist Party of Canada.
The world rankings, published annually, measures violations of press freedom worldwide. It reflects the degree of freedom enjoyed by journalists, the media and digital citizens of each country and the means used by states to respect and uphold this freedom. Finally, a note and a position are assigned to each country. To compile this index, Reporters Without Borders (RWB) prepared a questionnaire incorporating the main criteria (44 in total) to assess the situation of press freedom in a given country. This questionnaire was sent to partner organisations,150 RWB correspondents, journalists, researchers, jurists and human rights activists. It includes every kind of direct attacks against journalists and digital citizens (murders, imprisonment, assault, threats, etc.) or against the media (censorship, confiscation, searches and harassment etc.).
The Indicator of Political Freedom provides an annual evaluation of the state of freedom in a country as experienced by individuals. The survey measures freedom according to two broad categories: political rights and civil liberties. The ratings process is based on a checklist of 10 political rights questions (on Electoral Process, Political Pluralism and Participation, Functioning of Government) and 15 civil liberties questions (on Freedom of Expression, Belief, Associational and Organizational Rights, Rule of Law, Personal Autonomy and Individual Rights). Scores are awarded to each of these questions on a scale of 0 to 4, where a score of 0 represents the smallest degree and 4 the greatest degree of rights or liberties present. The total score awarded to the political rights and civil liberties checklist determines the political rights and civil liberties rating. Each rating of 1 through 7, with 1 representing the highest and 7 the lowest level of freedom, corresponds to a range of total scores.
Political freedom in the world (interactive map)
Source: Freedom in the World Report, Freedom House
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